Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Russia and Eurasia · ARM

Armenia

Baseline index 6.65Rank 89 of 197FoundationalRussia and EurasiaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years16.8rank 108 of 197 · 3 years: 17.2
Worst case−11.7%Pandemic · tail −11.0%
Opportunity · 10 years−6.4rank 131 of 197 · 3 years: −5.9
Best case+17Energy abundance · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed27%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.89expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; refugees hosted per head of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; youth unemployment rate; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Armenia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.78
Energy supply shock S09−0.71
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.71
Global financial crisis S03−0.68
Chokepoint closure S05−0.67
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.65
AI diffusion shock S13−0.64
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.59
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.48
Disaster in the core S10−0.39
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.35
Food and water shock S11−0.33
Hybrid campaign S06−0.29
Mass displacement S08−0.27
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Pandemic S14High 0.69−0.78−1.07−0.47016Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.3 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 0.74−0.71−0.94−0.41015Energy Technologies 0.7 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.67−0.71−0.96−0.42▲ 316Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.65−0.68−0.97−0.43015Investment Attraction & Projection 4.3 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.73−0.67−0.85−0.37012Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.60−0.65−0.84−0.37▼ 115Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.4 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.67−0.64−0.91−0.40016Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.4 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.59−0.59−0.84−0.37013Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.62−0.48−0.62−0.27013Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.4 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.56−0.39−0.60−0.27012Transport Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.51−0.35−0.52−0.23▲ 210Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.6 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.35−0.33−0.47−0.20▲ 110Resource Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.36−0.29−0.39−0.17▲ 17Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.47−0.27−0.41−0.18▲ 19Labour & Employment 7.3 · Foundational

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Pandemic−0.82−0.42−0.33−1.01−0.88−0.95−0.88−0.87−0.87
Energy supply shock−0.17−0.99−0.36−0.41−0.41−0.93−1.10−1.07−0.95
Infrastructure collapse−0.88−1.04−0.36−0.37−0.37−0.93−0.87−0.85−0.75
Global financial crisis−0.34−0.34−0.30−0.69−0.69−0.86−1.14−0.98−0.78
Chokepoint closure−0.09−1.12−0.80·−0.50−1.08−0.43−0.86−1.11
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.83−0.35−0.30·−0.81−0.78−0.81−0.79−1.19
AI diffusion shock−0.84−0.35−0.31−0.94−0.71−0.97−0.82−0.45−0.40
Sovereign funding crisis−0.06−0.49−0.27−0.68−0.62−0.85−1.03−0.62−0.70
Single-supplier cut-off−0.93−0.25−0.31−0.40·−0.81·−0.82−0.82
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.81−0.24−0.60−0.27−0.67−0.36−0.27−0.27
Legitimacy crisis−0.26·−0.49−0.26−0.61−0.85−0.69··
Food and water shock−0.04−0.37−0.17−0.46−0.44−0.47−0.22−0.37−0.43
Hybrid campaign−0.22−0.49−0.47·−0.54−0.51·−0.20−0.20
Mass displacement·−0.27−0.20−0.56−0.46−0.63−0.27−0.03·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Armenia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+16.7
Sovereign debt reset S19+7.8
Great-power détente S18+5.0
Middle East settlement S21+1.8
100-day pandemic defence S24+1.2
Emerging-market breakout S20+0.4
Digital state leapfrog S23−9.8
Yield revolution S22−20.0
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−22.2
Superintelligence takeoff S15−23.5
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+16.719.22.52365Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+7.810.52.74645Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9 · Transitional
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+5.016.811.83078Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.5 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed+1.813.711.933124Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.5 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+1.218.016.826135Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+0.411.210.734151Investment Attraction & Projection 5.7 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−9.812.121.929152Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−20.05.225.225187Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−22.213.235.527174Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−23.510.133.622127Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception