Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years21.5rank 86 of 197 · 3 years: 22.5
Worst case−16.4%Energy supply shock · tail −15.0%
Opportunity · 10 years−6.3rank 129 of 197 · 3 years: −5.9
Best case+20Energy abundance · gainer in 3 of 10
Shock absorbed23%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.07expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; youth unemployment rate; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Bosnia & Herzegovina’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.95
Pandemic S14−0.88
AI diffusion shock S13−0.78
Global financial crisis S03−0.75
Chokepoint closure S05−0.75
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.70
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.63
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.53
Hybrid campaign S06−0.46
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.36
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.34
Disaster in the core S10−0.34
Mass displacement S08−0.22
Food and water shock S11−0.16
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.94 | −0.95 | −1.20 | −0.53 | ▼ 6 | 19 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.75 | −0.88 | −1.13 | −0.51 | ▼ 3 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.78 | −0.78 | −1.02 | −0.46 | ▼ 5 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.68 | −0.75 | −1.01 | −0.44 | ▼ 2 | 13 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.8 · Nascent |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.80 | −0.75 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▼ 6 | 15 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.64 | −0.70 | −0.88 | −0.40 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.58 | −0.63 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▼ 3 | 6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.71 | −0.53 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▼ 4 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.52 | −0.46 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▼ 6 | 7 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.50 | −0.36 | −0.51 | −0.22 | ▲ 4 | 4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 · Nascent |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Low 0.31 | −0.34 | −0.45 | −0.20 | ▲ 4 | 7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.9 · Nascent |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.46 | −0.34 | −0.50 | −0.22 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Transport Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.36 | −0.22 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▲ 1 | 5 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.9 · Foundational |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.17 | −0.16 | −0.23 | −0.10 | ▲ 6 | 2 | Resource Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.16 | −1.34 | −0.50 | −0.56 | −0.56 | −1.25 | −1.48 | −1.43 | −1.27 |
| Pandemic | −0.79 | −0.48 | −0.39 | −1.16 | −1.01 | −1.08 | −1.01 | −0.99 | −0.99 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.81 | −0.44 | −0.40 | −1.18 | −0.88 | −1.22 | −1.03 | −0.57 | −0.51 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.36 | −0.38 | −0.34 | −0.75 | −0.75 | −0.94 | −1.26 | −1.08 | −0.86 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.10 | −1.24 | −0.99 | · | −0.56 | −1.20 | −0.48 | −0.96 | −1.23 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.71 | −1.05 | −0.37 | −0.37 | −0.37 | −0.94 | −0.87 | −0.86 | −0.75 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.66 | −0.34 | −0.31 | · | −0.80 | −0.77 | −0.80 | −0.79 | −1.18 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.85 | −0.29 | −0.37 | −0.46 | · | −0.93 | · | −0.94 | −0.94 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.34 | −0.75 | −0.82 | · | −0.84 | −0.79 | · | −0.31 | −0.31 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.26 | · | −0.53 | −0.27 | −0.62 | −0.86 | −0.71 | · | · |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.03 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.48 | −0.58 | −0.35 | −0.40 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.70 | −0.21 | −0.52 | −0.23 | −0.59 | −0.31 | −0.23 | −0.23 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.23 | −0.17 | −0.46 | −0.38 | −0.52 | −0.22 | −0.03 | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.19 | −0.21 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Bosnia & Herzegovina is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Energy abundance S16+19.9
Middle East settlement S21+16.2
100-day pandemic defence S24+12.0
Digital state leapfrog S23−5.1
Great-power détente S18−5.3
Emerging-market breakout S20−7.4
Sovereign debt reset S19−8.4
Yield revolution S22−9.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15−26.1
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−33.9
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +19.9 | 20.3 | 0.3 | 20 | 55 | Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +16.2 | 17.8 | 1.7 | 30 | 61 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +12.0 | 15.1 | 3.1 | 22 | 81 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −5.1 | 6.9 | 11.9 | 23 | 107 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −5.3 | 14.5 | 19.7 | 27 | 140 | Export Capability & Sophistication 5 · Nascent |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | −7.4 | 8.3 | 15.7 | 32 | 184 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −8.4 | 3.7 | 12.1 | 39 | 191 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.3 · Foundational |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −9.4 | 4.4 | 13.8 | 22 | 145 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −26.1 | 10.8 | 36.8 | 16 | 141 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −33.9 | 11.0 | 44.9 | 24 | 196 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |