Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Europe · HRV

Croatia

Baseline index 9.53Rank 51 of 197TransitionalEuropeAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years11.0rank 143 of 197 · 3 years: 11.3
Worst case−8.2%Pandemic · tail −7.5%
Opportunity · 10 years+6.1rank 59 of 197 · 3 years: +6.5
Best case+30Energy abundance · gainer in 4 of 10
Shock absorbed39%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.61expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of population aged 65 and over; few months of imports covered by reserves; internet users as a share of population; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; public debt relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Croatia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.78
Energy supply shock S09−0.69
Global financial crisis S03−0.67
AI diffusion shock S13−0.67
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.63
Chokepoint closure S05−0.54
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.52
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.52
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.44
Hybrid campaign S06−0.37
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.28
Disaster in the core S10−0.28
Mass displacement S08−0.24
Food and water shock S11−0.10
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Pandemic S14High 0.81−0.78−1.26−0.55▼ 224Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.1 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09High 0.81−0.69−1.05−0.46▼ 426Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.80−0.67−1.19−0.52▼ 123Investment Attraction & Projection 7.3 · Foundational
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.79−0.67−1.08−0.47021Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.66−0.63−0.96−0.42▲ 120Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.9 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.72−0.54−0.85−0.37▼ 419Maritime Power 4.9 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.59−0.52−0.83−0.36015Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.1 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.62−0.52−0.89−0.39▼ 121Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.5 · Foundational
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.69−0.44−0.70−0.31▼ 114Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.9 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.52−0.37−0.58−0.25▼ 112Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.7 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.48−0.28−0.49−0.21013Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.5 · Foundational
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.47−0.28−0.51−0.22011Energy Infrastructure 9 · Foundational
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.49−0.24−0.44−0.19010Labour & Employment 11.1 · Transitional
Food and water shock S11Low 0.14−0.10−0.18−0.0807Resource Infrastructure 7.8 · Foundational

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Pandemic−0.83−0.42−0.34−1.01−0.88−0.95−0.88−0.87−0.87
Energy supply shock−0.16−0.96−0.36−0.40−0.40−0.90−1.07−1.03−0.92
Global financial crisis−0.34−0.34−0.30−0.68−0.68−0.85−1.13−0.97−0.77
AI diffusion shock−0.88−0.37−0.33−0.97−0.73−1.01−0.85−0.47−0.42
Infrastructure collapse−0.78−0.91−0.32−0.32−0.32−0.81−0.76−0.74−0.65
Chokepoint closure−0.07−0.89−0.75·−0.40−0.86−0.34−0.69−0.88
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.67−0.28−0.25·−0.65−0.63−0.65−0.64−0.96
Sovereign funding crisis−0.05−0.43−0.24−0.60−0.54−0.74−0.90−0.54−0.62
Single-supplier cut-off−0.85−0.23−0.29−0.36·−0.74·−0.75−0.75
Hybrid campaign−0.28−0.61−0.66·−0.67−0.63·−0.25−0.25
Legitimacy crisis−0.21·−0.41−0.21−0.48−0.67−0.55··
Disaster in the core−0.02−0.57−0.17−0.42−0.19−0.48−0.25−0.19−0.19
Mass displacement·−0.24−0.18−0.49−0.40−0.55−0.23−0.03·
Food and water shock−0.01−0.12−0.05−0.14−0.13−0.14−0.07−0.12−0.13

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Croatia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+30.1
100-day pandemic defence S24+28.1
Middle East settlement S21+25.4
Great-power détente S18+11.4
Digital state leapfrog S23+0.7
Sovereign debt reset S19+0.3
Superintelligence takeoff S15−3.8
Emerging-market breakout S20−3.9
Yield revolution S22−4.0
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−12.1
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+30.130.30.23536Energy Technologies 4 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+28.130.32.24047Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+25.426.51.14937Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗Gainer+11.424.913.64753Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed+0.78.88.14069Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+0.37.87.458137Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 11 · Transitional
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Mixed−3.819.523.42952Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed−3.910.014.049173Investment Attraction & Projection 8.7 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−4.05.59.441122Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−12.122.634.641140Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent