Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years4.1rank 190 of 197 · 3 years: 4.2
Worst case−3.0%Energy supply shock · tail −2.8%
Opportunity · 10 years+34.4rank 3 of 197 · 3 years: +35.2
Best case+76Energy abundance · gainer in 7 of 10
Shock absorbed61%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.02expected index points from best practice
Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkResource Infrastructureweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of population aged 65 and over; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; refugees hosted per head of population; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Germany’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.49
Pandemic S14−0.46
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.45
AI diffusion shock S13−0.45
Global financial crisis S03−0.39
Chokepoint closure S05−0.39
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.29
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.28
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.28
Hybrid campaign S06−0.24
Mass displacement S08−0.19
Disaster in the core S10−0.17
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.14
Food and water shock S11−0.13
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.92 | −0.49 | −1.20 | −0.48 | 0 | 9 | Resource Infrastructure 12.4 · Established |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.82 | −0.46 | −1.28 | −0.46 | 0 | 10 | Foundational Education 14.6 · Established |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.76 | −0.45 | −1.11 | −0.45 | 0 | 11 | Energy Infrastructure 14.1 · Established |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.84 | −0.45 | −1.16 | −0.45 | 0 | 10 | Digital & AI Competence 14.5 · Established |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.70 | −0.39 | −1.05 | −0.39 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 15.2 · Advanced |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.73 | −0.39 | −0.87 | −0.36 | 0 | 11 | Maritime Power 11.5 · Transitional |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.57 | −0.29 | −0.81 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 15.6 · Advanced |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.72 | −0.28 | −0.74 | −0.27 | 0 | 8 | Resource Infrastructure 13.1 · Established |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.51 | −0.28 | −0.74 | −0.28 | 0 | 6 | Energy Infrastructure 14.4 · Established |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.54 | −0.24 | −0.61 | −0.24 | 0 | 9 | Maritime Power 11.9 · Transitional |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.58 | −0.19 | −0.52 | −0.19 | ▼ 1 | 4 | Foundational Education 14.9 · Established |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.44 | −0.17 | −0.48 | −0.17 | 0 | 6 | Energy Infrastructure 14.5 · Established |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.35 | −0.14 | −0.37 | −0.14 | 0 | 4 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 11.9 · Transitional |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.26 | −0.13 | −0.34 | −0.13 | 0 | 6 | Resource Infrastructure 13.2 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.11 | −0.68 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.64 | −0.76 | −0.73 | −0.65 |
| Pandemic | −0.49 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.59 | −0.52 | −0.55 | −0.52 | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.55 | −0.64 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.58 | −0.54 | −0.53 | −0.46 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.58 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.65 | −0.49 | −0.67 | −0.57 | −0.31 | −0.28 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.48 | −0.64 | −0.55 | −0.44 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.05 | −0.63 | −0.58 | · | −0.28 | −0.61 | −0.24 | −0.49 | −0.62 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.15 | · | −0.36 | −0.34 | −0.36 | −0.35 | −0.52 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.53 | −0.14 | −0.21 | −0.23 | · | −0.46 | · | −0.47 | −0.47 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.40 | −0.48 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.18 | −0.38 | −0.45 | · | −0.43 | −0.40 | · | −0.16 | −0.16 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.39 | −0.32 | −0.43 | −0.18 | −0.02 | · |
| Disaster in the core | −0.01 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.26 | −0.12 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.12 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.10 | · | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.24 | −0.33 | −0.27 | · | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.17 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Germany is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Energy abundance S16+76.4
100-day pandemic defence S24+61.3
Superintelligence takeoff S15+47.3
Middle East settlement S21+45.6
Great-power détente S18+43.4
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+24.7
Digital state leapfrog S23+10.3
Emerging-market breakout S20+7.8
Yield revolution S22+5.1
Sovereign debt reset S19+1.4
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +76.4 | 76.4 | 0.1 | 80 | 4 | Energy Infrastructure 15 · Advanced |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +61.3 | 62.1 | 0.8 | 81 | 4 | Population Health 15.7 · Advanced |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +47.3 | 55.0 | 7.7 | 78 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 15 · Advanced |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +45.6 | 46.0 | 0.4 | 79 | 4 | Energy Infrastructure 15 · Advanced |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +43.4 | 47.6 | 4.2 | 88 | 7 | Export Capability & Sophistication 17.3 · Advanced |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +24.7 | 37.4 | 12.8 | 82 | 5 | Population Health 15.7 · Advanced |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Gainer | +10.3 | 14.0 | 3.8 | 80 | 23 | Digital & AI Competence 15.5 · Advanced |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +7.8 | 13.7 | 5.9 | 80 | 91 | Energy Infrastructure 15 · Advanced |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +5.1 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 81 | 54 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 15.5 · Advanced |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +1.4 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 82 | 125 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 16 · Advanced |