Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Europe · ITA

Italy

Baseline index 13.72Rank 20 of 197EstablishedEuropeAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years6.2rank 175 of 197 · 3 years: 6.0
Worst case−4.4%AI diffusion shock · tail −4.3%
Opportunity · 10 years+19.6rank 25 of 197 · 3 years: +20.1
Best case+57Energy abundance · gainer in 5 of 10
Shock absorbed51%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.20expected index points from best practice
Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkLabour & Employmentweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of population aged 65 and over; public debt relative to gdp; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; youth unemployment rate; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Italy’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.60
AI diffusion shock S13−0.60
Pandemic S14−0.58
Global financial crisis S03−0.54
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.52
Chokepoint closure S05−0.40
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.39
Disaster in the core S10−0.35
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.33
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.31
Hybrid campaign S06−0.29
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.24
Mass displacement S08−0.21
Food and water shock S11−0.14
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.89−0.60−1.16−0.51018Energy Technologies 10.2 · Transitional
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.82−0.60−1.14−0.50014Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 9.7 · Transitional
Pandemic S14High 0.78−0.58−1.22−0.53016Labour & Employment 10.9 · Transitional
Global financial crisis S03High 0.74−0.54−1.11−0.49015Labour & Employment 10.9 · Transitional
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.72−0.52−1.05−0.46017Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 11.7 · Transitional
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.70−0.40−0.83−0.36012Resource Infrastructure 11 · Transitional
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.54−0.39−0.79−0.3409Energy Infrastructure 12.2 · Established
Disaster in the core S10High 0.70−0.35−0.77−0.34011Energy Infrastructure 12 · Established
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.49−0.33−0.70−0.30010Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.6 · Transitional
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.62−0.31−0.63−0.27011Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.4 · Transitional
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.53−0.29−0.59−0.26013Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 11.6 · Transitional
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.45−0.24−0.46−0.2005Justice System & Fundamental Rights 11.6 · Transitional
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.50−0.21−0.44−0.1906Labour & Employment 11.8 · Transitional
Food and water shock S11Low 0.23−0.14−0.30−0.1307Resource Infrastructure 11.7 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.14−0.83−0.34−0.34−0.34−0.78−0.92−0.89−0.79
AI diffusion shock−0.78−0.33−0.33−0.87−0.65−0.90−0.76−0.42−0.37
Pandemic−0.62−0.31−0.28−0.75−0.66−0.70−0.66−0.64−0.64
Global financial crisis−0.27−0.27−0.27−0.54−0.54−0.67−0.89−0.77−0.61
Infrastructure collapse−0.65−0.75−0.30−0.27−0.27−0.67−0.63−0.62−0.54
Chokepoint closure−0.05−0.64−0.59·−0.29−0.62−0.25−0.50−0.64
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.33−0.20−0.45−0.41−0.56−0.68−0.41−0.47
Disaster in the core−0.02−0.73−0.24−0.54−0.24−0.61−0.32−0.24−0.24
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.42−0.18−0.18·−0.41−0.39−0.41−0.40−0.60
Single-supplier cut-off−0.58−0.16−0.22−0.25·−0.51·−0.51−0.51
Hybrid campaign−0.21−0.46−0.54·−0.51−0.48·−0.19−0.19
Legitimacy crisis−0.17·−0.38−0.17−0.40−0.56−0.46··
Mass displacement·−0.21−0.17−0.42−0.35−0.48−0.20−0.02·
Food and water shock−0.02−0.16−0.08−0.19−0.18−0.20−0.09−0.16−0.18

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Italy is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+57.4
100-day pandemic defence S24+47.4
Middle East settlement S21+37.2
Great-power détente S18+26.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15+20.8
Digital state leapfrog S23+5.1
Yield revolution S22+1.7
Emerging-market breakout S20−0.3
Sovereign debt reset S19−1.0
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−3.1
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+57.460.73.36411Energy Technologies 11.6 · Transitional
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+47.449.01.56819Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 · Established
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+37.239.82.66915Energy Infrastructure 13 · Established
Great-power détente S18 ↗Gainer+26.435.49.07419Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Gainer+20.841.520.76122Artificial Intelligence 11.3 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed+5.112.06.96651Digital & AI Competence 12.5 · Established
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+1.77.86.16984Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed−0.311.311.567155Technical & Vocational Skills 12.5 · Established
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−1.05.26.266156Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 12.5 · Established
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed−3.127.730.86999Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established