Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Russia and Eurasia · KAZ

Kazakhstan

Baseline index 8.14Rank 66 of 197FoundationalRussia and EurasiaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years10.3rank 148 of 197 · 3 years: 10.3
Worst case−8.5%Infrastructure collapse · tail −7.7%
Opportunity · 10 years−10.7rank 159 of 197 · 3 years: −9.6
Best case+7Great-power détente · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed34%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.58expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid campaign, AI diffusion shock, Single-supplier cut-off. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; land border with russia or belarus; no coastline; internet users as a share of population; consumer price inflation; industry as a share of gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Kazakhstan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.69
AI diffusion shock S13−0.64
Hybrid campaign S06−0.55
Pandemic S14−0.55
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.38
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.36
Global financial crisis S03−0.36
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.35
Disaster in the core S10−0.32
Food and water shock S11−0.29
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.28
Mass displacement S08−0.18
Energy supply shock S09−0.14
Chokepoint closure S05−0.12
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.69−0.69−1.00−0.44029Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.4 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.69−0.64−0.94−0.42026Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06High 0.73−0.55−0.81−0.35▼ 326Maritime Power 1.5 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.53−0.55−0.82−0.36023Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.7 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.50−0.38−0.52−0.23▲ 114Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.5 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.57−0.36−0.57−0.25017Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.38−0.36−0.56−0.24▲ 215Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.9 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.37−0.35−0.52−0.23▲ 111Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.50−0.32−0.54−0.24▲ 115Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8.5 · Foundational
Food and water shock S11Low 0.35−0.29−0.46−0.20▲ 114Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8.3 · Foundational
Sovereign funding crisis S04Low 0.29−0.28−0.42−0.18▲ 112Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.1 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08Low 0.33−0.18−0.29−0.13▲ 17Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.1 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09Low 0.17−0.14−0.21−0.09▲ 210Energy Technologies 4.3 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05Low 0.16−0.12−0.19−0.08▲ 27Maritime Power 2.7 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Infrastructure collapse−0.86−1.01−0.36−0.36−0.36−0.90−0.84−0.82−0.72
AI diffusion shock−0.80−0.35−0.31−0.93−0.70−0.96−0.82−0.45−0.40
Hybrid campaign−0.41−0.90−0.98·−1.00−0.94·−0.38−0.38
Pandemic−0.58−0.29−0.24−0.70−0.62−0.66−0.62−0.60−0.60
Legitimacy crisis−0.28·−0.56−0.28−0.66−0.91−0.75··
Single-supplier cut-off−0.69−0.19−0.24−0.30·−0.60·−0.61−0.61
Global financial crisis−0.18−0.18−0.16−0.36−0.36−0.45−0.60−0.52−0.41
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.44−0.18−0.17·−0.43−0.41−0.43−0.42−0.63
Disaster in the core−0.02−0.67−0.20−0.50−0.22−0.56−0.30−0.22−0.22
Food and water shock−0.03−0.33−0.15−0.41−0.39−0.42−0.19−0.33−0.38
Sovereign funding crisis−0.03−0.23−0.13−0.32−0.29−0.40−0.48−0.29−0.33
Mass displacement·−0.18−0.14−0.37−0.30−0.41−0.18−0.02·
Energy supply shock−0.03−0.19−0.07−0.08−0.08−0.18−0.21−0.20−0.18
Chokepoint closure−0.02−0.20−0.17·−0.09−0.20−0.08−0.16−0.20

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Kazakhstan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Great-power détente S18+7.0
100-day pandemic defence S24+4.8
Emerging-market breakout S20+0.6
Sovereign debt reset S19+0.1
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−3.9
Digital state leapfrog S23−10.0
Superintelligence takeoff S15−13.6
Yield revolution S22−22.8
Middle East settlement S21−30.7
Energy abundance S16−46.2
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+7.017.110.14268Export Capability & Sophistication 8 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+4.819.614.837107Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+0.618.017.447150Investment Attraction & Projection 8.7 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+0.12.52.442143Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7.3 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed−3.922.526.438103Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−10.014.224.233154Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−13.611.024.62374Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−22.85.828.637192Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Loser−30.75.736.347180Trade Facilitation & Logistics 9 · Transitional
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−46.24.150.334173Energy Technologies 4.6 · Nascent