Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Europe · XKX

Kosovo

Baseline index 4.70Rank 125 of 197NascentEuropeAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years28.2rank 62 of 197 · 3 years: 29.4
Worst case−21.5%Energy supply shock · tail −19.6%
Opportunity · 10 years−6.2rank 126 of 197 · 3 years: −5.6
Best case+15Energy abundance · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed19%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.19expected index points from best practice
Breadth2 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Kosovo’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−1.01
Pandemic S14−0.93
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.83
Chokepoint closure S05−0.78
AI diffusion shock S13−0.77
Global financial crisis S03−0.70
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.64
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.60
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.47
Disaster in the core S10−0.47
Hybrid campaign S06−0.46
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.34
Mass displacement S08−0.28
Food and water shock S11−0.18
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.96−1.01−1.21−0.54▼ 723Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.79−0.93−1.15−0.52▼ 419Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.73−0.83−0.99−0.44013Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.80−0.78−0.91−0.40▼ 515Maritime Power 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.75−0.77−0.95−0.43▼ 413Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.60−0.70−0.88−0.39014Investment Attraction & Projection 2.6 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.58−0.64−0.77−0.35▼ 18Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.79−0.60−0.70−0.33▼ 49Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.41−0.47−0.59−0.26▲ 28Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.60−0.47−0.65−0.28▼ 112Energy Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.53−0.46−0.55−0.25▼ 612Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.48−0.34−0.47−0.21▲ 35Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.43−0.28−0.38−0.1604Labour & Employment 5.5 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11Low 0.18−0.18−0.24−0.10▲ 46Resource Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.10−1.44−0.48−0.60−0.60−1.35−1.60−1.54−1.37
Pandemic−0.67−0.52−0.38−1.26−1.11−1.18−1.11−1.08−1.08
Infrastructure collapse−0.67−1.28−0.41−0.46−0.46−1.14−1.07−1.05−0.92
Chokepoint closure−0.10−1.33−0.86·−0.60−1.28−0.51−1.02−1.32
AI diffusion shock−0.66−0.45−0.36−1.19−0.89−1.23−1.04−0.57−0.51
Global financial crisis−0.29−0.36−0.29−0.72−0.72−0.89−1.19−1.02−0.82
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.53−0.36−0.29·−0.85−0.82−0.85−0.83−1.25
Single-supplier cut-off−0.68−0.35−0.40−0.55·−1.11·−1.13−1.13
Sovereign funding crisis−0.05−0.39−0.20−0.54−0.49−0.67−0.82−0.49−0.56
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.99−0.26−0.73−0.33−0.82−0.44−0.33−0.33
Hybrid campaign−0.28−0.80−0.67·−0.89−0.83·−0.33−0.33
Legitimacy crisis−0.22·−0.47−0.26−0.61−0.85−0.69··
Mass displacement·−0.28−0.19−0.58−0.47−0.65−0.27−0.03·
Food and water shock−0.02−0.21−0.08−0.25−0.24−0.26−0.12−0.21−0.24

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Kosovo is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+14.8
Middle East settlement S21+14.4
100-day pandemic defence S24+8.5
Digital state leapfrog S23−5.0
Sovereign debt reset S19−6.5
Emerging-market breakout S20−7.8
Great-power détente S18−9.4
Yield revolution S22−11.0
Superintelligence takeoff S15−22.0
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−23.0
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+14.815.20.41574Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+14.416.21.82764Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.8 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+8.511.93.31795Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−5.07.812.819106Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−6.56.613.136188Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed−7.810.117.925185Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−9.411.320.721160Export Capability & Sophistication 3.7 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−11.03.914.917151Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−22.08.730.813115Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−23.012.135.118178Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception