Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Europe · LTU

Lithuania

Baseline index 10.75Rank 39 of 197TransitionalEuropeAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years11.0rank 144 of 197 · 3 years: 11.6
Worst case−7.0%Energy supply shock · tail −6.6%
Opportunity · 10 years+12.6rank 37 of 197 · 3 years: +13.3
Best case+39100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 4 of 10
Shock absorbed44%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.56expected index points from best practice
Breadth7 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid campaign, Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: land border with russia or belarus; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; refugees hosted per head of population; adult obesity rate.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Lithuania’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.75
Pandemic S14−0.75
AI diffusion shock S13−0.63
Chokepoint closure S05−0.62
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.61
Global financial crisis S03−0.56
Hybrid campaign S06−0.56
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.53
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.47
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.34
Disaster in the core S10−0.26
Mass displacement S08−0.24
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.21
Food and water shock S11−0.13
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.92−0.75−1.19−0.52▼ 219Energy Technologies 3 · Nascent
Pandemic S14High 0.87−0.75−1.34−0.59022Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.5 · Foundational
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.82−0.63−1.13−0.49019Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.82−0.62−0.97−0.42▼ 115Maritime Power 3.2 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.72−0.61−1.04−0.45▲ 316Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.3 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03High 0.73−0.56−1.08−0.47▼ 114Economic Output & Productivity 9.4 · Transitional
Hybrid campaign S06High 0.88−0.56−0.98−0.43▼ 318Maritime Power 3.2 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.65−0.53−0.92−0.40013Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.78−0.47−0.79−0.35016Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.9 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.45−0.34−0.65−0.29▲ 28Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.3 · Transitional
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.49−0.26−0.54−0.23▲ 29Energy Infrastructure 9.4 · Transitional
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.55−0.24−0.48−0.2107Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11.6 · Transitional
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.42−0.21−0.43−0.19▲ 26Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10 · Transitional
Food and water shock S11Low 0.19−0.13−0.25−0.11▲ 27Resource Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.18−1.05−0.40−0.44−0.44−0.99−1.17−1.13−1.00
Pandemic−0.80−0.40−0.33−0.97−0.85−0.91−0.85−0.83−0.83
AI diffusion shock−0.82−0.34−0.31−0.91−0.68−0.94−0.80−0.44−0.39
Chokepoint closure−0.08−1.02−0.86·−0.46−0.98−0.39−0.78−1.01
Infrastructure collapse−0.76−0.89−0.32−0.32−0.32−0.79−0.74−0.72−0.63
Global financial crisis−0.28−0.28−0.25−0.57−0.57−0.71−0.94−0.81−0.65
Hybrid campaign−0.42−0.91−0.98·−1.01−0.95·−0.38−0.38
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.68−0.28−0.25·−0.66−0.64−0.66−0.65−0.97
Single-supplier cut-off−0.90−0.24−0.31−0.38·−0.78·−0.79−0.79
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.28−0.16−0.40−0.36−0.49−0.59−0.36−0.41
Disaster in the core−0.02−0.55−0.16−0.40−0.18−0.46−0.24−0.18−0.18
Mass displacement·−0.24−0.18−0.49−0.40−0.55−0.24−0.03·
Legitimacy crisis−0.16·−0.31−0.16−0.37−0.51−0.42··
Food and water shock−0.02−0.15−0.07−0.19−0.18−0.19−0.09−0.15−0.17

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Lithuania is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+38.5
Energy abundance S16+30.2
Middle East settlement S21+26.1
Great-power détente S18+19.2
Superintelligence takeoff S15+6.1
Digital state leapfrog S23+5.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+4.6
Sovereign debt reset S190.0
Emerging-market breakout S20−1.2
Yield revolution S22−1.6
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+38.540.31.85029Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+30.239.29.04035Energy Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+26.131.75.65435Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.5 · Transitional
Great-power détente S18 ↗Gainer+19.230.611.45334Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.5 · Transitional
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Mixed+6.124.518.43636Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed+5.812.06.35346Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.4 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+4.631.426.85163Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed0.06.06.067146Health System Capability 13 · Established
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed−1.212.413.656160Energy Infrastructure 10.1 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−1.66.47.950108Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational