Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; share of population aged 65 and over; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Netherlands’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.94 | −0.58 | −1.46 | −0.56 | 0 | 9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.6 · Established |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.83 | −0.50 | −1.20 | −0.49 | 0 | 7 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 12.8 · Established |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.82 | −0.48 | −1.06 | −0.43 | 0 | 8 | Energy Technologies 11.3 · Transitional |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.82 | −0.47 | −1.23 | −0.47 | 0 | 5 | Economic Output & Productivity 14.6 · Established |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.87 | −0.47 | −1.20 | −0.47 | 0 | 7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13 · Established |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.70 | −0.40 | −0.99 | −0.40 | 0 | 7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.1 · Established |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.76 | −0.40 | −0.91 | −0.38 | 0 | 8 | Resource Infrastructure 12 · Transitional |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.72 | −0.31 | −0.74 | −0.30 | 0 | 4 | Resource Infrastructure 12.5 · Established |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.53 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.31 | 0 | 1 | Energy Infrastructure 13.2 · Established |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.55 | −0.26 | −0.61 | −0.26 | 0 | 4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 · Established |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.54 | −0.22 | −0.59 | −0.22 | ▲ 1 | 2 | Energy Infrastructure 13.3 · Established |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.54 | −0.18 | −0.48 | −0.18 | 0 | 1 | Foundational Education 15.7 · Advanced |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.42 | −0.17 | −0.43 | −0.17 | 0 | 2 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 13.2 · Established |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.22 | −0.10 | −0.29 | −0.10 | 0 | 1 | Resource Infrastructure 12.8 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic | −0.61 | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.74 | −0.65 | −0.69 | −0.65 | −0.63 | −0.63 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.62 | −0.73 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.65 | −0.61 | −0.59 | −0.52 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.11 | −0.66 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.62 | −0.74 | −0.71 | −0.63 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.47 | −0.47 | −0.59 | −0.79 | −0.68 | −0.54 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.62 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.69 | −0.51 | −0.71 | −0.60 | −0.33 | −0.29 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.51 | −0.21 | −0.21 | · | −0.50 | −0.48 | −0.50 | −0.49 | −0.73 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.05 | −0.65 | −0.60 | · | −0.29 | −0.63 | −0.25 | −0.50 | −0.65 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.59 | −0.16 | −0.23 | −0.25 | · | −0.51 | · | −0.52 | −0.52 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.03 | −0.25 | −0.16 | −0.35 | −0.32 | −0.44 | −0.53 | −0.32 | −0.36 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.19 | −0.42 | −0.50 | · | −0.47 | −0.44 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.01 | −0.45 | −0.15 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.37 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.15 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.36 | −0.30 | −0.41 | −0.17 | −0.02 | · |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.13 | · | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.29 | −0.41 | −0.33 | · | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.13 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Netherlands is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +64.9 | 65.9 | 1.0 | 75 | 2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · Established |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +57.3 | 61.6 | 4.3 | 71 | 12 | Energy Technologies 12.4 · Established |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +44.6 | 50.2 | 5.6 | 80 | 4 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 15.5 · Advanced |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +44.2 | 52.9 | 8.7 | 74 | 10 | Energy Infrastructure 13.9 · Established |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +38.2 | 41.0 | 2.7 | 75 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 13.9 · Established |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +24.2 | 36.5 | 12.3 | 84 | 7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 16.6 · Advanced |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Gainer | +10.4 | 13.8 | 3.4 | 79 | 21 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 15 · Advanced |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +8.4 | 14.0 | 5.6 | 76 | 86 | Energy Infrastructure 13.9 · Established |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +2.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 84 | 76 | Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16.5 · Advanced |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −0.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 80 | 148 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced |