Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years8.4rank 164 of 197 · 3 years: 8.5
Worst case−6.1%Energy supply shock · tail −5.7%
Opportunity · 10 years+15.4rank 30 of 197 · 3 years: +15.9
Best case+43Energy abundance · gainer in 4 of 10
Shock absorbed46%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.40expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; public debt relative to gdp; share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Portugal’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.71
Pandemic S14−0.67
Global financial crisis S03−0.62
AI diffusion shock S13−0.60
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.59
Chokepoint closure S05−0.53
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.45
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.43
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.38
Hybrid campaign S06−0.34
Disaster in the core S10−0.29
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.24
Mass displacement S08−0.21
Food and water shock S11−0.12
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.91 | −0.71 | −1.18 | −0.51 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Energy Technologies 5 · Nascent |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.81 | −0.67 | −1.26 | −0.55 | 0 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.3 · Foundational |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.82 | −0.62 | −1.22 | −0.53 | 0 | 13 | Economic Output & Productivity 10.3 · Transitional |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.82 | −0.60 | −1.13 | −0.49 | 0 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.71 | −0.59 | −1.02 | −0.45 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5 · Nascent |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.77 | −0.53 | −0.91 | −0.40 | 0 | 14 | Resource Infrastructure 6.9 · Foundational |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.58 | −0.45 | −0.82 | −0.36 | 0 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.9 · Nascent |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.58 | −0.43 | −0.83 | −0.37 | 0 | 5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 10.1 · Transitional |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.65 | −0.38 | −0.65 | −0.29 | 0 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.7 · Nascent |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.53 | −0.34 | −0.58 | −0.26 | 0 | 7 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.7 · Nascent |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.57 | −0.29 | −0.62 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 2 | Energy Infrastructure 10.4 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.48 | −0.24 | −0.49 | −0.21 | ▲ 1 | 5 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 10.6 · Transitional |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.49 | −0.21 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 1 | 2 | Labour & Employment 12.6 · Established |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.18 | −0.12 | −0.24 | −0.11 | ▲ 1 | 2 | Resource Infrastructure 8 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.16 | −0.99 | −0.37 | −0.41 | −0.41 | −0.93 | −1.10 | −1.06 | −0.94 |
| Pandemic | −0.72 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.87 | −0.76 | −0.81 | −0.76 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.62 | −0.62 | −0.78 | −1.04 | −0.89 | −0.71 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.78 | −0.33 | −0.29 | −0.87 | −0.65 | −0.89 | −0.76 | −0.42 | −0.37 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.73 | −0.85 | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.76 | −0.71 | −0.70 | −0.61 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.07 | −0.88 | −0.74 | · | −0.39 | −0.84 | −0.34 | −0.67 | −0.87 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.58 | −0.24 | −0.22 | · | −0.56 | −0.54 | −0.56 | −0.55 | −0.83 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.05 | −0.36 | −0.20 | −0.50 | −0.45 | −0.62 | −0.75 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.72 | −0.19 | −0.25 | −0.31 | · | −0.63 | · | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.25 | −0.55 | −0.59 | · | −0.61 | −0.57 | · | −0.23 | −0.23 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.61 | −0.18 | −0.45 | −0.20 | −0.51 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.20 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.18 | · | −0.36 | −0.18 | −0.41 | −0.58 | −0.47 | · | · |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.43 | −0.35 | −0.48 | −0.20 | −0.03 | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.16 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Portugal is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Energy abundance S16+43.3
100-day pandemic defence S24+40.8
Middle East settlement S21+33.7
Great-power détente S18+21.9
Superintelligence takeoff S15+9.1
Digital state leapfrog S23+5.7
Sovereign debt reset S19+2.4
Emerging-market breakout S20+2.2
Yield revolution S22+0.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−0.8
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +43.3 | 46.0 | 2.6 | 47 | 19 | Energy Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +40.8 | 42.4 | 1.6 | 56 | 27 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +33.7 | 35.9 | 2.2 | 61 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +21.9 | 32.2 | 10.3 | 60 | 26 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 11.5 · Transitional |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Mixed | +9.1 | 28.3 | 19.2 | 42 | 30 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +5.7 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 56 | 48 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9 · Transitional |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.4 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 68 | 111 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 13 · Established |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +2.2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 61 | 141 | Energy Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +0.3 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 57 | 95 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 · Transitional |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −0.8 | 25.3 | 26.1 | 57 | 93 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 · Transitional |