Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; land border with russia or belarus; internet users as a share of population; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; share of population aged 65 and over; urban share of population; consumer price inflation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Russia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.69 | −0.54 | −0.95 | −0.41 | 0 | 12 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.5 · Nascent |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.75 | −0.51 | −1.09 | −0.46 | 0 | 11 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 9.6 · Transitional |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.58 | −0.47 | −0.91 | −0.39 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Population Health 9.1 · Transitional |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.73 | −0.43 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Health System Capability 10.5 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.48 | −0.36 | −0.50 | −0.21 | 0 | 8 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.6 · Nascent |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.38 | −0.30 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5 · Foundational |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Low 0.31 | −0.28 | −0.47 | −0.20 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.1 · Nascent |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.52 | −0.26 | −0.53 | −0.22 | ▲ 1 | 4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.4 · Foundational |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.42 | −0.21 | −0.38 | −0.17 | ▲ 1 | 5 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 · Nascent |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Low 0.21 | −0.19 | −0.30 | −0.13 | 0 | 5 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.3 · Nascent |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.24 | −0.17 | −0.31 | −0.14 | 0 | 4 | Population Health 9.6 · Transitional |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.30 | −0.14 | −0.34 | −0.14 | ▲ 1 | 4 | Internal Security & Order 9.9 · Transitional |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Low 0.16 | −0.10 | −0.21 | −0.09 | ▲ 3 | 5 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11.3 · Transitional |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Low 0.12 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.06 | ▲ 3 | 4 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 11.8 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI diffusion shock | −0.70 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.78 | −0.58 | −0.80 | −0.68 | −0.38 | −0.33 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.63 | −0.74 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.66 | −0.61 | −0.60 | −0.53 |
| Pandemic | −0.50 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.60 | −0.53 | −0.56 | −0.53 | −0.52 | −0.52 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.89 | −0.30 | −0.66 | −0.30 | −0.74 | −0.40 | −0.30 | −0.30 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.26 | · | −0.57 | −0.26 | −0.60 | −0.84 | −0.69 | · | · |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.38 | −0.16 | −0.16 | · | −0.37 | −0.36 | −0.37 | −0.36 | −0.54 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.34 | −0.46 | −0.39 | −0.31 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.50 | −0.14 | −0.19 | −0.22 | · | −0.44 | · | −0.44 | −0.44 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.42 | −0.34 | −0.47 | −0.20 | −0.02 | · |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.26 | −0.32 | −0.19 | −0.22 |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.19 | −0.22 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.11 | −0.23 | −0.27 | · | −0.26 | −0.24 | · | −0.10 | −0.10 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.14 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.10 | · | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.10 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Russia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +22.9 | 32.9 | 10.0 | 56 | 54 | Population Health 10 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +22.0 | 29.9 | 7.9 | 54 | 25 | Investment Attraction & Projection 10 · Transitional |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +5.5 | 35.0 | 29.5 | 55 | 57 | Population Health 10 · Transitional |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | −0.2 | 14.5 | 14.7 | 56 | 154 | Investment Attraction & Projection 10 · Transitional |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Mixed | −0.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 | 50 | 47 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.2 · Foundational |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −1.2 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 37 | 157 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −10.9 | 14.0 | 24.9 | 42 | 156 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −19.8 | 8.0 | 27.8 | 58 | 186 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Loser | −28.0 | 10.0 | 38.0 | 59 | 178 | Internal Security & Order 10.3 · Transitional |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −35.6 | 7.2 | 42.7 | 60 | 167 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 · Transitional |