| Scenario | North America | Europe | China | Indo-Pacific | South Asia | Gulf and Middle East | Africa | Latin America and Caribbean | Russia and Eurasia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S03 · Rank 1Global financial crisisA Economic and trade | High Origin and amplifier. The repricing starts in the most crowded trade of the decade and equities fall 57 per cent. | High Banks, commercial property and thin fiscal space. Central banks facing inflation do not cut first. | Medium The property overhang deepens, while capital controls insulate the financial system. | High Export demand falls and open capital accounts transmit the funding stress. | Medium Currencies lose ground against the dollar as capital leaves emerging markets. | Medium Oil demand falls; sovereign wealth buffers absorb the first round. | High Market access is lost and aid falls. Sovereigns request programmes. | High The currency and commodity channel: depreciation and falling export prices arrive together. | Medium Commodity export revenue falls with global demand. |
| S05 · Rank 2Chokepoint closureB Geopolitical and security | Low Net exporter; price exposure only. | Medium Jet fuel, LNG and Suez trade. A third of its jet fuel came through the same water. | High Crude imports run through Hormuz and Malacca. | High Japan, Korea and Taiwan import most of their energy by sea and ration industrial users within three weeks. | High India's crude and Pakistan's LNG come through the strait. | High Exports stop. For some, the fiscal position collapses. | Medium East African food and fuel freight: rates triple on the routes that remain open. | Low Rated Low: far from the strait and less dependent on its cargoes. | Low Low exposure; a beneficiary on price. |
| S02 · Rank 3Single-supplier cut-offA Economic and trade | Medium Manufacturers wait on licensed inputs. Governments find they cannot see the second and third tiers of their own supply chains. | High Automotive, machinery and generic medicines. A parts maker stops shipping and the assembly plant runs out on day nine. | Low The supplier in most variants; an importer where the input is lithography tools. | High Electronics assembly stalls as components and materials are licensed shipment by shipment. | Medium Generics makers lose their intermediates when a supplier's export permit goes; fertiliser buyers are outbid. | Low Little industry depends on the affected inputs; exposure is low. | High Fertiliser and medicines with no stockpiles. A hospital pharmacy learns of the cut-off when its tender fails. | Medium Industry and agriculture compete for alternative supply against larger buyers. | Medium Importers of the affected inputs queue behind larger buyers for alternative supply. |
| S07 · Rank 4Legitimacy crisisB Geopolitical and security | Medium Political violence is rated a Tier I contingency in CFR's 2026 survey. | Medium Romania, Georgia and Serbia are the precedents. | Low Rated Low: a different pathway. | Medium Contested elections and successions are the likelier triggers. | High Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka: youth-led protest has toppled governments within days. | Medium Succession and austerity decisions are the likelier triggers. | High Coups and protest-driven collapses. In Madagascar the military took power after weeks of protest. | High Peru, Bolivia, Venezuela and Ecuador are the precedents. | Medium Georgia, Armenia and Belarus are the precedents. |
| S01 · Rank 5Geoeconomic confrontationA Economic and trade | Medium Initiator and target at once. A diversified economy absorbs the tariffs, but input costs rise and retaliation lands on exporters. | High Export-dependent and caught between blocs: firms lose components from one side and markets on the other. | High Initiator and target. The export engine is hit by tariffs and controls, and answers with licensing of its own. | High The supply-chain hub for both blocs. Factories segment product lines and requalify suppliers bloc by bloc. | Medium Gains from trade diversion, while exposed to controls on the inputs its new factories need. | Medium Energy demand softens and alignment pressure rises on suppliers, standards and payment rails. | Medium Commodity prices swing. Aid and finance come with alignment conditions and banks risk their correspondent accounts. | Medium Commodity exporters sell to both blocs under USMCA uncertainty. Banks that clear for the wrong counterparty are sanctioned. | Medium Already partly decoupled; the wider split adds less new exposure here than elsewhere. |
| S09 · Rank 6Energy supply shockC Energy, climate and resources | Low Net exporter; price pass-through only. | High Gas import dependence. Fertiliser, glass and chemicals plants close in a second wave. | Medium A coal buffer, with exposure through crude imports. | High Japan, Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines import their energy. | High LNG cargoes are diverted to higher bidders and power cuts return. | Low Windfall, except for the parties to the conflict. | High Diesel dependence for generators and water pumps, with no fiscal space. | Medium A mix of producers and importers. | Low Low exposure: windfall. |
| S13 · Rank 7AI diffusion shockD Technology and infrastructure | High Origin: concentration and displacement together. | High Dependence without domestic frontier providers. | Medium Domestic capability, and its own displacement. | High Services exporters; ageing labour markets in Japan and Korea act as a mitigant. | High IT services and outsourcing exposure. | Medium Importers with capital. | Medium Lower exposure and leapfrog potential, with dependence. | Medium Exposed through knowledge-work displacement and dependence on foreign models. | Medium Exposed through knowledge-work displacement and dependence on foreign models. |
| S14 · Rank 8PandemicE Health | High Connectivity and trust deficits. | High High connectivity; intensive care passes capacity within weeks in the first affected cities. | High Density, and prior experience. | High Connectivity, with strong prior response capability. | High Density and health system capacity. | Medium Capital to respond; a large migrant workforce. | High Health system capacity and late vaccine access. | High Surge capacity is exceeded and vaccines arrive late without pre-purchase agreements. | Medium Exposed through workforce absence and medical supply chains. |
| S11 · Rank 9Food and water shockC Energy, climate and resources | Low Rated Low: an exporter. | Low Low exposure; water stress in the south. | Medium Imports of soy and feed; water stress in the north. | Medium Rice importers and Pacific islands. | High The Indus and Ganges–Brahmaputra basins; rice and wheat. | High Import dependence above 80 per cent for staples; the Nile and Tigris–Euphrates. | High The Sahel, Horn and Nile; fertiliser. | Medium Caribbean import dependence; the Central American dry corridor. | Medium Central Asian water; exporter windfalls. |
| S04 · Rank 10Sovereign funding crisisA Economic and trade | Low Rated Low: the scenario is not expected to strike here at Standard Severe. | Low Low overall and Medium for highly indebted members. The 2022 gilt crisis is the advanced-economy variant. | Low Rated Low: the scenario is not expected to strike here at Standard Severe. | Medium Risk concentrates in Pacific islands, Laos and economies adjacent to Pakistan. | High High exposure. Sri Lanka's 2022 default is the market-loss anchor: fuel, medicine and food shortages. | Medium Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan carry the exposure. | High Debt distress and aid dependence. A donor suspends disbursements and the drug supply chain breaks within the budget year. | High Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela carry the exposure. | Medium The sanctions variant: reserves immobilised and banks excluded from payments. |
| S10 · LibraryDisaster in the coreC Energy, climate and resources | High Hurricanes, fire and earthquake. The 2025 Los Angeles wildfires cost insurers around US$40 billion. | Medium Floods and heat. Valencia in 2024: over 220 deaths and alert failures. | High Floods, typhoons and earthquakes. | High Typhoons, earthquakes and Pacific cyclones. | High Floods, heat and earthquakes. In 2022 a third of Pakistan was under water. | Medium Heat and flash floods; Türkiye and Iran are seismic. | High Floods and drought, with low insurance coverage. | High Hurricanes, earthquakes and El Niño. | Medium Central Asian seismic risk; wildfire. |
| S06 · LibraryHybrid campaignB Geopolitical and security | Low Rated Low as a target. | High The active theatre: Baltic cables, drone incursions, airport closures and parcel incendiaries. | Low Rated Low as a target. | Medium Taiwan's cables and Philippine waters. | Medium Campaigns below the threshold of war are plausible between neighbours. | Medium Proxy and drone warfare. | Low Rated Low. | Low Rated Low. | Medium Ukraine's strikes; Moldova, Georgia and Armenia as targets. |
| S08 · LibraryMass displacementB Geopolitical and security | Medium Western Hemisphere displacement. | High Ukraine, Middle East and Africa routes. Poland registered about 1.5 million within weeks in 2022. | Low Rated Low. | Medium Myanmar and Pacific climate displacement. | High Afghanistan, Myanmar and Bangladesh. | High Syria, Sudan, Yemen and Gaza. | High Sudan, the Sahel, DRC and the Horn. Chad and Egypt have received millions. | High Venezuela and Haiti. Colombia has received around 2.8 million. | Medium Neighbours of conflicts receive arrivals ahead of any burden-sharing. |
| S12 · LibraryInfrastructure collapseD Technology and infrastructure | Medium An ageing grid, extreme weather and cyber. | Medium Interconnected, but exposed to sabotage and renewables integration. The Iberian blackout of 2025 is the anchor. | Medium Strong state capacity; cyber-physical targets. | Medium Taiwan's grid concentration. | High Pakistan's nationwide blackout in 2023; India in 2012. | Medium Desalination depends on power. | High South African load-shedding; fragile grids with no backup depth. | High Venezuela in 2019; Ecuador's rationing in 2024. | Medium Ukraine's grid under attack. |
| S15 · Upside ↗Superintelligence takeoffD Technology and infrastructure | High Host of most leading projects: the gains, the power demand and the control problem all land here first. | High Dependence without a frontier project. Regulation is the main lever and adoption speed the main test. | High The other host. Domestic chips and power decide whether it keeps pace. | High Chip manufacturing gives Taiwan, Korea and Japan leverage; services exporters are repriced. | High IT services and outsourcing are repriced to the cost of inference, while cheap expertise reaches hundreds of millions. | Medium Energy and capital buy a seat: compute is hosted where power is cheap. | Medium The largest gains from health and agricultural science, with the least bargaining power over access. | Medium Minerals and power are bargaining chips; services employment is exposed. | Medium Cut off from frontier chips; the military implications dominate. |
| S16 · Upside ↗Energy abundanceC Energy, climate and resources | Medium Shale producers lose and data centres gain. Permitting decides the balance. | High An importer windfall, though heavy industry may still leave for cheaper power. | High The largest maker of solar and batteries and the largest energy importer: gains on both sides. | High Japan, Korea and Taiwan cut import bills; Australia loses coal and gas revenue. | High A lower import bill and cheaper power for India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. | High Low-cost producers with sovereign funds pump more and wait. The rest face fiscal collapse. | High Cheap distributed power for importers; Nigeria, Angola and Algeria lose revenue. | Medium Mineral exporters gain; Venezuela, Ecuador and Colombia lose oil income. | High The budget rests on oil and gas: a second 1986. |
| S17 · Upside ↗Biomedical breakthroughsE Health | High High obesity and high prices: large gains once prices fall. | High Ageing populations gain years of health and face pension strain. | High Rapid ageing meets a large domestic manufacturing base. | High Japan and Korea face the sharpest longevity pressure on pensions and care. | High The generic manufacturing base supplies the world, and a large diabetes burden at home. | Medium High diabetes prevalence and the capacity to pay. | High The largest gains, from HIV and malaria prevention. Delivery is the constraint: cold chain, nurses and budget. | Medium Rising chronic disease and uneven health systems. | Medium High cardiovascular mortality; access is constrained. |
| S18 · Upside ↗Great-power détenteB Geopolitical and security | Medium Party to the settlement. Consumers gain; plants built on tariffs lose their protection. | High A security settlement on its border. Finance ministers quietly revise the defence line. | High Party to the settlement: export access is restored and controls on its inputs are lifted. | High Vietnam and Malaysia lose the detour trade; Taiwan reads the annexes. | Medium India loses some diversion gains and some leverage as the powers stop courting. | Medium Risk premia fall, with less room to play the powers against each other. | Medium Cheaper food and freight, and less competition for its alignment. | Medium Mexico loses its nearshoring advantage as orders return to the direct route. | High Sanctions relief in stages, on the terms of a ceasefire line neither side calls a border. |
| S19 · Upside ↗Sovereign debt resetA Economic and trade | Low A creditor. New York law governs many of the bonds. | Low A creditor: London law and the Paris Club. | Medium The largest bilateral creditor books losses and sets a precedent by signing common terms. | Low Laos and Pacific islands are among those treated. | High Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are candidates. | Medium Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon as debtors; Gulf states as creditors. | High Most of the nations treated are here. Interest bills had passed health and education combined. | Medium Bolivia, Ecuador and Argentina are candidates. | Low Little direct exposure. |
| S20 · Upside ↗Emerging-market breakoutA Economic and trade | Medium Mexico gains from proximity; incumbent manufacturers meet rivals that did not exist a decade ago. | Medium A machine-tool town loses its last mid-sized manufacturer; its firms gain new markets. | Medium Assembly moves to neighbours; customers grow next door. | High Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are among the breakout economies. | High India leads: growth near 8 per cent, with Bangladesh following. | Medium Capital and energy supplier to the growing economies. | High Young workforces and the widest gap between those that break out and those bypassed. | Medium Mexico and Brazil gain; others stay in the middle-income trap. | Low Commodity demand without the investment. |
| S21 · Upside ↗Middle East settlementB Geopolitical and security | Low A guarantor. Shale producers face a lower oil price. | Medium Lower energy risk and a new corridor to India. | Medium The largest buyer of Gulf oil gets secure supply. | Medium Japan, Korea and Taiwan gain secure energy routes. | High India anchors the corridor; Pakistan's LNG is secured. | High The parties themselves: reconstruction, normalisation and a lower defence burden. | Medium Red Sea trade and Suez revenue return for Egypt and East Africa. | Low Oil exporters lose the premium. | Medium Russia loses price support and arms sales; Caucasus transit gains. |
| S22 · Upside ↗Yield revolutionC Energy, climate and resources | Medium An exporter: land prices are down and co-operatives merge. | Low Slower regulation; a modest gain for consumers. | Medium A large importer of feed with strong crop science of its own. | Medium Rice importers gain; Australia, Thailand and Vietnam lose export income. | High Large smallholder populations: yield and nutrition gains. | High Import dependence above 80 per cent for staples: the import bill falls. | High The widest yield gap and the largest gain. | Medium Brazil and Argentina lose export income; Central America gains. | Medium Russia and Ukraine lose export leverage. |
| S23 · Upside ↗Digital state leapfrogD Technology and infrastructure | Low Fragmented private systems; incumbents are exposed. | Low Already digitised: an exporter of the model. | Low Built its own, on platform firms. | Medium South-East Asian payment links; Pacific islands leap. | High India is the origin; its neighbours adopt. | Medium State capacity and capital: Gulf digital government. | High The largest leap available, on a mobile money base. | High Brazil's Pix is the regional model. | Medium State-led systems with weaker safeguards. |
| S24 · Upside ↗100-day pandemic defenceE Health | High Platform owners and manufacturers; trust decides uptake. | High Manufacturing and regulation at speed. | High A large manufacturing base; data sharing is the question. | High Strong surveillance and prior response capability. | High India's manufacturing reaches the world. | Medium Capital to buy; a mobile workforce to protect. | High New regional plants; delivery and workforce are the constraint. | Medium Regional plants in Brazil and Argentina. | Medium Partly outside the sharing network. |
Overview cells are GINC desk summaries of each scenario's own record: its narrative, transmission channels, loading table and regional rationale. Bold marks the phrase to read first. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects. Source: ginc-desk-v0.2. Download as CSV.