Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years3.3rank 195 of 197 · 3 years: 3.1
Worst case−3.4%Pandemic · tail −3.3%
Opportunity · 10 years+21.1rank 22 of 197 · 3 years: +22.6
Best case+54Superintelligence takeoff · gainer in 5 of 10
Shock absorbed59%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.02expected index points from best practice
Breadth6 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; share of exports going to china and the united states; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; adult obesity rate; few months of imports covered by reserves; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Canada’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Pandemic S14−0.51
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.48
AI diffusion shock S13−0.48
Global financial crisis S03−0.38
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.37
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.30
Disaster in the core S10−0.23
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.22
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.19
Mass displacement S08−0.14
Hybrid campaign S06−0.13
Chokepoint closure S05−0.09
Energy supply shock S09−0.08
Food and water shock S11−0.06
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.80 | −0.51 | −1.24 | −0.50 | 0 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · Established |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.78 | −0.48 | −1.13 | −0.47 | 0 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 · Established |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.85 | −0.48 | −1.17 | −0.48 | 0 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.1 · Transitional |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.66 | −0.38 | −0.99 | −0.38 | 0 | 12 | Economic Output & Productivity 14.2 · Established |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.63 | −0.37 | −0.89 | −0.37 | 0 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.4 · Transitional |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.53 | −0.30 | −0.76 | −0.30 | 0 | 8 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 13.9 · Established |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.54 | −0.23 | −0.59 | −0.23 | 0 | 9 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 14.8 · Established |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.52 | −0.22 | −0.53 | −0.22 | 0 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.5 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.45 | −0.19 | −0.47 | −0.18 | 0 | 5 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 11.5 · Transitional |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.40 | −0.14 | −0.36 | −0.14 | 0 | 4 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 15.2 · Advanced |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.26 | −0.13 | −0.29 | −0.12 | 0 | 8 | Maritime Power 10.9 · Transitional |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Low 0.18 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.08 | ▲ 2 | 6 | Maritime Power 11 · Transitional |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Low 0.15 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.07 | ▲ 2 | 7 | Energy Technologies 12.8 · Established |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.12 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.06 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.4 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic | −0.54 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.65 | −0.57 | −0.61 | −0.57 | −0.56 | −0.56 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.59 | −0.69 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.62 | −0.57 | −0.56 | −0.49 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.62 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.69 | −0.52 | −0.71 | −0.60 | −0.33 | −0.30 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.38 | −0.38 | −0.48 | −0.64 | −0.55 | −0.44 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.47 | −0.20 | −0.20 | · | −0.46 | −0.44 | −0.46 | −0.45 | −0.68 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.03 | −0.25 | −0.16 | −0.35 | −0.31 | −0.43 | −0.52 | −0.31 | −0.36 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.46 | −0.15 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.39 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.15 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.42 | −0.11 | −0.16 | −0.18 | · | −0.37 | · | −0.37 | −0.37 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.14 | · | −0.30 | −0.14 | −0.32 | −0.44 | −0.36 | · | · |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.28 | −0.23 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.02 | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.09 | −0.20 | −0.24 | · | −0.22 | −0.21 | · | −0.08 | −0.08 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.13 | · | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.14 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.10 |
| Food and water shock | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.08 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Canada is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Superintelligence takeoff S15+53.8
100-day pandemic defence S24+52.7
Great-power détente S18+40.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+26.2
Digital state leapfrog S23+10.3
Emerging-market breakout S20+6.8
Sovereign debt reset S19+2.3
Middle East settlement S21+1.5
Yield revolution S22−5.9
Energy abundance S16−7.4
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +53.8 | 63.1 | 9.3 | 64 | 4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 · Transitional |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +52.7 | 54.9 | 2.2 | 74 | 14 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · Established |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +40.3 | 48.5 | 8.3 | 75 | 10 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +26.2 | 40.5 | 14.3 | 81 | 3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8 · Advanced |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Gainer | +10.3 | 15.8 | 5.5 | 77 | 24 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 14.4 · Established |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +6.8 | 16.1 | 9.3 | 76 | 99 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 80 | 112 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +1.5 | 13.7 | 12.2 | 76 | 128 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −5.9 | 8.2 | 14.2 | 78 | 126 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 15.3 · Advanced |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | −7.4 | 12.9 | 20.3 | 71 | 147 | Energy Technologies 13 · Established |