Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Latin America and Caribbean · CHL

Chile

Baseline index 10.62Rank 41 of 197TransitionalLatin America and CaribbeanAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years8.5rank 161 of 197 · 3 years: 8.2
Worst case−8.1%Infrastructure collapse · tail −6.7%
Opportunity · 10 years+13.3rank 35 of 197 · 3 years: +14.2
Best case+34Energy abundance · gainer in 6 of 10
Shock absorbed44%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.38expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: internet users as a share of population; share of exports going to china and the united states; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; urban share of population; adult obesity rate; youth unemployment rate.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Chile’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.85
Pandemic S14−0.69
Energy supply shock S09−0.59
AI diffusion shock S13−0.56
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.47
Disaster in the core S10−0.41
Chokepoint closure S05−0.40
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.40
Global financial crisis S03−0.39
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.34
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.33
Hybrid campaign S06−0.19
Mass displacement S08−0.18
Food and water shock S11−0.15
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.94−0.85−1.36−0.60▼ 217Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.77−0.69−1.19−0.52▲ 113Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.3 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09High 0.80−0.59−1.03−0.45▲ 39Energy Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.69−0.56−0.94−0.41▲ 212Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.6 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.60−0.47−0.84−0.37▲ 110Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.78−0.41−0.84−0.37010Energy Infrastructure 9.7 · Transitional
Chokepoint closure S05Medium 0.59−0.40−0.69−0.30▲ 48Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 7.8 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.75−0.40−0.77−0.34▼ 15Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.2 · Foundational
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.52−0.39−0.77−0.34▲ 37Labour & Employment 10.5 · Transitional
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.47−0.34−0.67−0.30▲ 28Energy Infrastructure 10.2 · Transitional
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.58−0.33−0.59−0.26▲ 27Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.26−0.19−0.29−0.13▲ 46Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.5 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.41−0.18−0.36−0.16▲ 12Labour & Employment 11.1 · Transitional
Food and water shock S11Low 0.24−0.15−0.31−0.14▲ 14Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.4 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Infrastructure collapse−1.07−1.24−0.44−0.44−0.44−1.11−1.04−1.02−0.89
Pandemic−0.73−0.37−0.30−0.89−0.78−0.84−0.78−0.76−0.76
Energy supply shock−0.14−0.82−0.31−0.34−0.34−0.77−0.91−0.88−0.78
AI diffusion shock−0.73−0.31−0.28−0.82−0.61−0.84−0.71−0.39−0.35
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.60−0.25−0.23·−0.59−0.57−0.59−0.58−0.86
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.85−0.26−0.63−0.28−0.71−0.38−0.28−0.28
Chokepoint closure−0.05−0.65−0.55·−0.29−0.62−0.25−0.50−0.64
Legitimacy crisis−0.29·−0.58−0.29−0.68−0.94−0.77··
Global financial crisis−0.20−0.20−0.18−0.39−0.39−0.49−0.65−0.56−0.45
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.28−0.16−0.39−0.35−0.48−0.59−0.35−0.40
Single-supplier cut-off−0.64−0.17−0.22−0.27·−0.55·−0.56−0.56
Hybrid campaign−0.14−0.30−0.33·−0.34−0.32·−0.13−0.13
Mass displacement·−0.18−0.13−0.37−0.30−0.41−0.17−0.02·
Food and water shock−0.02−0.17−0.08−0.21−0.20−0.22−0.10−0.17−0.20

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Chile is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+34.2
100-day pandemic defence S24+26.4
Great-power détente S18+21.0
Middle East settlement S21+17.8
Emerging-market breakout S20+13.1
Digital state leapfrog S23+12.6
Sovereign debt reset S19+6.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+2.9
Yield revolution S22−0.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15−1.8
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+34.235.00.84330Energy Technologies 6.2 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+26.430.54.14549Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗Gainer+21.032.311.35629Export Capability & Sophistication 10.3 · Transitional
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+17.821.53.75557Alliances & Security Cooperation 10 · Transitional
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Gainer+13.125.412.35857Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Gainer+12.620.27.64316Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+6.37.71.56766Financial Regulation & Integrity 13 · Established
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+2.922.319.44671Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−0.412.012.446103Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Mixed−1.816.818.63049Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception