Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; youth unemployment rate; adult obesity rate; share of exports going to china and the united states.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Costa Rica’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.89 | −0.92 | −1.26 | −0.56 | ▼ 1 | 25 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.81 | −0.76 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▼ 3 | 23 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.75 | −0.76 | −1.15 | −0.51 | 0 | 26 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.7 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.71 | −0.65 | −0.96 | −0.42 | ▼ 1 | 24 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.9 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.64 | −0.62 | −0.95 | −0.42 | 0 | 23 | Economic Output & Productivity 7.3 · Foundational |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.97 | −0.58 | −1.04 | −0.46 | ▼ 2 | 23 | Energy Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.63 | −0.56 | −0.72 | −0.32 | ▼ 2 | 17 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.57 | −0.54 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.57 | −0.51 | −0.82 | −0.36 | 0 | 23 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.3 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.67 | −0.37 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.2 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.45 | −0.32 | −0.45 | −0.20 | 0 | 9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.4 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.59 | −0.29 | −0.51 | −0.23 | 0 | 11 | Labour & Employment 9.8 · Transitional |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.25 | −0.21 | −0.27 | −0.12 | 0 | 6 | Air Power 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.26 | −0.21 | −0.34 | −0.15 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Resource Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −1.08 | −1.35 | −0.44 | −0.48 | −0.48 | −1.21 | −1.13 | −1.11 | −0.97 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.18 | −1.06 | −0.35 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −0.99 | −1.18 | −1.14 | −1.01 |
| Pandemic | −0.81 | −0.41 | −0.30 | −0.99 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.86 | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.85 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.95 | −0.71 | −0.98 | −0.83 | −0.46 | −0.41 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.62 | −0.62 | −0.78 | −1.04 | −0.89 | −0.71 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.21 | −0.32 | −0.89 | −0.40 | −1.01 | −0.54 | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.07 | −0.95 | −0.66 | · | −0.43 | −0.92 | −0.37 | −0.73 | −0.94 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.69 | −0.29 | −0.23 | · | −0.67 | −0.65 | −0.67 | −0.66 | −0.98 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.05 | −0.42 | −0.21 | −0.59 | −0.53 | −0.73 | −0.88 | −0.53 | −0.61 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.28 | · | −0.49 | −0.28 | −0.65 | −0.90 | −0.74 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.61 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.26 | · | −0.53 | · | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.29 | −0.20 | −0.60 | −0.49 | −0.67 | −0.29 | −0.04 | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.16 | −0.34 | −0.34 | · | −0.38 | −0.36 | · | −0.14 | −0.14 |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.30 | −0.14 | −0.24 | −0.27 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Costa Rica is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +22.9 | 23.9 | 1.0 | 27 | 46 | Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +18.3 | 23.0 | 4.7 | 35 | 64 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +11.7 | 20.0 | 8.3 | 45 | 68 | Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +11.2 | 25.5 | 14.3 | 47 | 54 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.8 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +9.7 | 14.7 | 5.1 | 35 | 82 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +7.0 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 34 | 40 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +6.3 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 54 | 67 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 9.8 · Transitional |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −6.2 | 9.1 | 15.3 | 34 | 128 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −6.5 | 17.1 | 23.6 | 37 | 112 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −12.2 | 14.0 | 26.2 | 26 | 70 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.3 · Inception |