Dominica · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years30.7rank 51 of 197 · 3 years: 29.1

Worst case−23.4%Infrastructure collapse · tail −22.4%

Opportunity · 10 years−9.4rank 154 of 197 · 3 years: −8.3

Best case+8Energy abundance · gainer in 0 of 10

Shock absorbed18%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.07expected index points from best practice

Breadth9 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; adult obesity rate.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Dominica’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.91

Pandemic S14−0.87

Energy supply shock S09−0.83

Global financial crisis S03−0.82

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.77

AI diffusion shock S13−0.64

Chokepoint closure S05−0.62

Disaster in the core S10−0.59

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.47

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.43

Food and water shock S11−0.37

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.31

Hybrid campaign S06−0.22

Mass displacement S08−0.21

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.85	−0.91	−1.04	−0.48	▼ 7	20	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.76	−0.87	−1.03	−0.47	▼ 6	17	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.80	−0.83	−0.96	−0.43	0	19	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.74	−0.82	−1.03	−0.46	▼ 4	14	Investment Attraction & Projection 1.6 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.70	−0.77	−0.98	−0.43	0	16	Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.66	−0.64	−0.78	−0.35	▲ 2	11	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.67	−0.62	−0.70	−0.33	0	14	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.77	−0.59	−0.80	−0.36	▼ 3	12	Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.70	−0.47	−0.61	−0.29	▲ 3	8	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.40	−0.43	−0.50	−0.22	▲ 5	12	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.36	−0.37	−0.47	−0.21	▲ 6	6	Resource Infrastructure 0.1 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.43	−0.31	−0.36	−0.16	▲ 7	7	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.25	−0.22	−0.24	−0.11	▲ 2	4	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Low 0.34	−0.21	−0.29	−0.13	▲ 2	3	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.2 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−0.20	−1.45	−0.34	−0.56	−0.56	−1.39	−1.30	−1.27	−1.11
Pandemic	−0.20	−0.49	−0.29	−1.26	−1.10	−1.18	−1.10	−1.08	−1.08
Energy supply shock	−0.04	−1.04	−0.31	−0.51	−0.51	−1.16	−1.37	−1.32	−1.17
Global financial crisis	−0.16	−0.41	−0.28	−0.87	−0.87	−1.09	−1.46	−1.25	−1.00
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.63	−0.26	−0.91	−0.82	−1.12	−1.36	−0.82	−0.93
AI diffusion shock	−0.20	−0.38	−0.26	−1.08	−0.81	−1.11	−0.95	−0.52	−0.46
Chokepoint closure	−0.04	−1.00	−0.48	·	−0.51	−1.10	−0.44	−0.88	−1.13
Disaster in the core	−0.04	−1.19	−0.27	−0.93	−0.42	−1.05	−0.56	−0.42	−0.42
Legitimacy crisis	−0.16	·	−0.43	−0.39	−0.91	−1.27	−1.04	·	·
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.17	−0.25	−0.18	·	−0.61	−0.59	−0.61	−0.60	−0.89
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.43	−0.15	−0.53	−0.50	−0.54	−0.25	−0.43	−0.49
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.17	−0.20	−0.20	−0.32	·	−0.64	·	−0.65	−0.65
Hybrid campaign	−0.08	−0.38	−0.32	·	−0.44	−0.41	·	−0.17	−0.17
Mass displacement	·	−0.22	−0.13	−0.45	−0.37	−0.51	−0.22	−0.03	·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Dominica is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+7.9

Sovereign debt reset S19+5.3

Emerging-market breakout S20+3.2

100-day pandemic defence S24+2.0

Middle East settlement S21+1.3

Digital state leapfrog S23−7.4

Great-power détente S18−15.4

Yield revolution S22−19.6

Superintelligence takeoff S15−26.1

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−28.2

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	+7.9	9.4	1.5	11	100	Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+5.3	8.6	3.3	33	78	Financial Regulation & Integrity 6 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+3.2	10.7	7.5	22	135	Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+2.0	9.0	7.0	13	127	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+1.3	8.5	7.2	20	131	Alliances & Security Cooperation 3 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−7.4	8.3	15.7	16	126	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Loser	−15.4	6.2	21.6	17	175	Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Loser	−19.6	3.7	23.3	12	185	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−26.1	5.2	31.2	10	142	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−28.2	7.9	36.1	15	188	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception