Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years40.2rank 31 of 197 · 3 years: 40.9
Worst case−32.3%Infrastructure collapse · tail −29.9%
Opportunity · 10 years−19.7rank 195 of 197 · 3 years: −21.3
Best case+3Yield revolution · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed13%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.09expected index points from best practice
Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; industry as a share of gdp; low life expectancy at birth; staple foods among the top five imports; share of population aged under 15.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Equatorial Guinea’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.90
Food and water shock S11−0.80
Pandemic S14−0.80
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.70
Global financial crisis S03−0.69
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.69
AI diffusion shock S13−0.62
Disaster in the core S10−0.57
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.56
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.48
Energy supply shock S09−0.43
Chokepoint closure S05−0.27
Mass displacement S08−0.23
Hybrid campaign S06−0.20
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.79 | −0.90 | −1.00 | −0.45 | ▼ 2 | 26 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.72 | −0.80 | −0.94 | −0.42 | ▼ 1 | 25 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 1.4 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.65 | −0.80 | −0.91 | −0.41 | ▲ 1 | 23 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.57 | −0.70 | −0.81 | −0.36 | ▲ 4 | 23 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.5 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.56 | −0.69 | −0.81 | −0.36 | ▲ 2 | 21 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.6 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.80 | −0.69 | −0.74 | −0.34 | 0 | 17 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.56 | −0.62 | −0.68 | −0.31 | ▲ 2 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.62 | −0.57 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▲ 1 | 18 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 1.8 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.81 | −0.56 | −0.66 | −0.30 | ▲ 1 | 17 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.44 | −0.48 | −0.55 | −0.25 | ▲ 4 | 16 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Medium 0.39 | −0.43 | −0.50 | −0.22 | ▲ 10 | 19 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Low 0.27 | −0.27 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▲ 9 | 9 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 1.3 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.31 | −0.23 | −0.27 | −0.12 | ▲ 6 | 5 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.2 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.21 | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.10 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.19 | −1.49 | −0.53 | −0.53 | −0.53 | −1.33 | −1.24 | −1.22 | −1.06 |
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.92 | −0.41 | −1.12 | −1.07 | −1.15 | −0.53 | −0.92 | −1.05 |
| Pandemic | −0.19 | −0.47 | −0.39 | −1.14 | −1.00 | −1.07 | −1.00 | −0.98 | −0.98 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.59 | −0.33 | −0.82 | −0.73 | −1.01 | −1.22 | −0.73 | −0.84 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.17 | −0.36 | −0.32 | −0.72 | −0.72 | −0.89 | −1.19 | −1.02 | −0.82 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.19 | · | −1.03 | −0.56 | −1.30 | −1.67 | −1.49 | · | · |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.19 | −0.38 | −0.34 | −1.02 | −0.77 | −1.05 | −0.89 | −0.49 | −0.44 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.18 | −0.35 | −0.87 | −0.39 | −0.98 | −0.52 | −0.39 | −0.39 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.19 | −0.36 | −0.46 | −0.57 | · | −1.15 | · | −1.17 | −1.17 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.19 | −0.29 | −0.26 | · | −0.67 | −0.64 | −0.67 | −0.65 | −0.98 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −0.61 | −0.23 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.57 | −0.67 | −0.65 | −0.58 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.03 | −0.44 | −0.37 | · | −0.20 | −0.43 | −0.17 | −0.34 | −0.44 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.23 | −0.17 | −0.47 | −0.39 | −0.53 | −0.23 | −0.03 | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.09 | −0.34 | −0.37 | · | −0.38 | −0.35 | · | −0.14 | −0.14 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Equatorial Guinea is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Yield revolution S22+2.7
Sovereign debt reset S19−0.5
Great-power détente S18−1.7
100-day pandemic defence S24−7.2
Emerging-market breakout S20−8.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−11.9
Digital state leapfrog S23−20.7
Superintelligence takeoff S15−33.6
Middle East settlement S21−41.7
Energy abundance S16−73.2
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +2.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 9 | 78 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −0.5 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 12 | 152 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.3 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −1.7 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 15 | 120 | Export Capability & Sophistication 2.3 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | −7.2 | 4.9 | 12.2 | 8 | 184 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | −8.8 | 11.5 | 20.3 | 16 | 187 | Technical & Vocational Skills 2.5 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −11.9 | 7.4 | 19.4 | 9 | 138 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −20.7 | 6.1 | 26.8 | 8 | 188 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −33.6 | 2.8 | 36.5 | 6 | 171 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Loser | −41.7 | 4.6 | 46.3 | 19 | 192 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.5 · Nascent |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −73.2 | 1.9 | 75.1 | 9 | 193 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |