Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years34.3rank 40 of 197 · 3 years: 36.5
Worst case−28.1%Energy supply shock · tail −22.8%
Opportunity · 10 years−5.8rank 120 of 197 · 3 years: −7.7
Best case+10Energy abundance · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed16%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.19expected index points from best practice
Breadth1 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; youth unemployment rate; low life expectancy at birth; industry as a share of gdp; few months of imports covered by reserves.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Eswatini’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−1.04
Chokepoint closure S05−0.76
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.74
Global financial crisis S03−0.72
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.69
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.66
Pandemic S14−0.65
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.59
AI diffusion shock S13−0.58
Food and water shock S11−0.51
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.45
Disaster in the core S10−0.35
Mass displacement S08−0.31
Hybrid campaign S06−0.19
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.98 | −1.04 | −1.21 | −0.54 | ▼ 3 | 20 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.78 | −0.76 | −0.86 | −0.39 | 0 | 19 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.65 | −0.74 | −0.92 | −0.40 | 0 | 14 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.2 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.62 | −0.72 | −0.89 | −0.39 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.5 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.61 | −0.69 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▲ 3 | 9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.84 | −0.66 | −0.77 | −0.35 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.54 | −0.65 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 4 | 11 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.84 | −0.59 | −0.69 | −0.32 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.56 | −0.58 | −0.68 | −0.31 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.49 | −0.51 | −0.64 | −0.28 | ▲ 6 | 10 | Resource Infrastructure 1.6 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.43 | −0.45 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▲ 5 | 9 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.42 | −0.35 | −0.45 | −0.20 | ▲ 6 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.46 | −0.31 | −0.40 | −0.17 | 0 | 9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.9 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.21 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.09 | ▲ 1 | 4 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.06 | −1.47 | −0.43 | −0.63 | −0.63 | −1.42 | −1.68 | −1.62 | −1.44 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.06 | −1.32 | −0.70 | · | −0.60 | −1.29 | −0.52 | −1.03 | −1.32 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.06 | −0.62 | −0.27 | −0.87 | −0.78 | −1.07 | −1.30 | −0.78 | −0.89 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.19 | −0.38 | −0.26 | −0.75 | −0.75 | −0.94 | −1.25 | −1.07 | −0.86 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.32 | −1.11 | −0.32 | −0.40 | −0.40 | −0.99 | −0.93 | −0.91 | −0.79 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.24 | · | −0.76 | −0.54 | −1.23 | −1.75 | −1.44 | · | · |
| Pandemic | −0.31 | −0.38 | −0.24 | −0.91 | −0.80 | −0.86 | −0.80 | −0.78 | −0.78 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.34 | −0.37 | −0.37 | −0.59 | · | −1.20 | · | −1.22 | −1.22 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.28 | −0.36 | −0.25 | −0.95 | −0.71 | −0.98 | −0.83 | −0.46 | −0.41 |
| Food and water shock | −0.06 | −0.59 | −0.21 | −0.72 | −0.69 | −0.74 | −0.34 | −0.59 | −0.67 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.24 | −0.27 | −0.19 | · | −0.62 | −0.60 | −0.62 | −0.61 | −0.91 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.74 | −0.17 | −0.55 | −0.25 | −0.62 | −0.33 | −0.25 | −0.25 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.32 | −0.19 | −0.65 | −0.53 | −0.73 | −0.31 | −0.04 | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.09 | −0.33 | −0.27 | · | −0.37 | −0.34 | · | −0.14 | −0.14 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Eswatini is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Energy abundance S16+9.9
Sovereign debt reset S19+6.1
Middle East settlement S21+5.6
Emerging-market breakout S20+3.9
Yield revolution S22+3.5
Great-power détente S18+0.6
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+0.3
100-day pandemic defence S24−5.2
Digital state leapfrog S23−11.9
Superintelligence takeoff S15−34.9
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +9.9 | 11.0 | 1.1 | 12 | 89 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +6.1 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 24 | 69 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +5.6 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 21 | 111 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.5 · Nascent |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +3.9 | 17.1 | 13.2 | 24 | 128 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4.3 · Nascent |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +3.5 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 14 | 69 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | +0.6 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 21 | 106 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.5 · Nascent |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +0.3 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 15 | 86 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | −5.2 | 6.2 | 11.3 | 13 | 170 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −11.9 | 11.0 | 22.9 | 14 | 165 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −34.9 | 4.1 | 39.0 | 9 | 174 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |