Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years30.5rank 54 of 197 · 3 years: 31.7
Worst case−25.4%Infrastructure collapse · tail −23.4%
Opportunity · 10 years−14.0rank 180 of 197 · 3 years: −14.9
Best case+4Sovereign debt reset · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed17%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.12expected index points from best practice
Breadth5 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis, Single-supplier cut-off. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; industry as a share of gdp; youth unemployment rate; urban share of population; share of population aged under 15.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Gabon’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−1.00
Pandemic S14−0.91
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.86
Global financial crisis S03−0.84
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.67
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.63
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.61
AI diffusion shock S13−0.58
Food and water shock S11−0.42
Energy supply shock S09−0.41
Disaster in the core S10−0.41
Chokepoint closure S05−0.32
Mass displacement S08−0.24
Hybrid campaign S06−0.21
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.88 | −1.00 | −1.15 | −0.52 | ▼ 13 | 25 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.75 | −0.91 | −1.08 | −0.48 | ▼ 9 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.73 | −0.86 | −1.04 | −0.46 | ▼ 5 | 19 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.2 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.71 | −0.84 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▼ 4 | 20 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1.8 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.81 | −0.67 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▼ 7 | 16 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.3 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.90 | −0.63 | −0.77 | −0.35 | ▼ 8 | 17 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.56 | −0.61 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▼ 3 | 13 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.55 | −0.58 | −0.69 | −0.31 | 0 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.39 | −0.42 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 3 | 8 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Medium 0.40 | −0.41 | −0.51 | −0.22 | ▲ 9 | 5 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.48 | −0.41 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Low 0.34 | −0.32 | −0.40 | −0.17 | ▲ 6 | 6 | Maritime Power 1.9 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.35 | −0.24 | −0.31 | −0.14 | ▲ 2 | 7 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.8 · Nascent |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.23 | −0.21 | −0.24 | −0.11 | 0 | 7 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.46 | −1.60 | −0.57 | −0.57 | −0.57 | −1.43 | −1.33 | −1.31 | −1.14 |
| Pandemic | −0.48 | −0.52 | −0.43 | −1.26 | −1.10 | −1.18 | −1.10 | −1.08 | −1.08 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.08 | −0.71 | −0.40 | −0.99 | −0.89 | −1.23 | −1.49 | −0.89 | −1.02 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.24 | −0.44 | −0.39 | −0.87 | −0.87 | −1.09 | −1.45 | −1.24 | −1.00 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.27 | · | −1.02 | −0.51 | −1.19 | −1.66 | −1.36 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.49 | −0.38 | −0.49 | −0.60 | · | −1.21 | · | −1.23 | −1.23 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.32 | · | −0.82 | −0.79 | −0.82 | −0.81 | −1.21 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.38 | −0.35 | −0.31 | −0.92 | −0.69 | −0.95 | −0.81 | −0.45 | −0.40 |
| Food and water shock | −0.05 | −0.47 | −0.21 | −0.58 | −0.55 | −0.59 | −0.28 | −0.47 | −0.54 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.08 | −0.58 | −0.22 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.54 | −0.64 | −0.62 | −0.55 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.85 | −0.26 | −0.63 | −0.28 | −0.71 | −0.38 | −0.28 | −0.28 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −0.52 | −0.44 | · | −0.24 | −0.50 | −0.20 | −0.40 | −0.52 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.51 | −0.42 | −0.57 | −0.24 | −0.03 | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.10 | −0.35 | −0.38 | · | −0.39 | −0.37 | · | −0.15 | −0.15 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Gabon is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Sovereign debt reset S19+4.0
Great-power détente S18+3.8
Yield revolution S22+2.8
100-day pandemic defence S24−0.9
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−2.5
Emerging-market breakout S20−6.3
Digital state leapfrog S23−13.3
Superintelligence takeoff S15−29.2
Middle East settlement S21−37.1
Energy abundance S16−67.1
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +4.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 23 | 90 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | +3.8 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 21 | 86 | Export Capability & Sophistication 3.7 · Nascent |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +2.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 15 | 77 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | −0.9 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 15 | 151 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −2.5 | 12.0 | 14.5 | 16 | 96 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | −6.3 | 16.0 | 22.4 | 23 | 181 | Technical & Vocational Skills 4 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −13.3 | 10.1 | 23.4 | 14 | 171 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −29.2 | 4.8 | 34.0 | 10 | 158 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Loser | −37.1 | 6.1 | 43.2 | 25 | 188 | Energy Infrastructure 4.6 · Nascent |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −67.1 | 2.7 | 69.9 | 13 | 187 | Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception |