Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years22.2rank 82 of 197 · 3 years: 23.1
Worst case−17.2%Infrastructure collapse · tail −16.7%
Opportunity · 10 years−19.6rank 194 of 197 · 3 years: −18.0
Best case+1100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed20%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.88expected index points from best practice
Breadth10 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Legitimacy crisis, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; industry as a share of gdp; few months of imports covered by reserves; internet users as a share of population; youth unemployment rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Guyana’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.78
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.76
Global financial crisis S03−0.73
Pandemic S14−0.73
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.58
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.55
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.52
AI diffusion shock S13−0.51
Disaster in the core S10−0.37
Mass displacement S08−0.36
Energy supply shock S09−0.29
Hybrid campaign S06−0.27
Chokepoint closure S05−0.23
Food and water shock S11−0.23
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.69 | −0.78 | −0.90 | −0.41 | ▲ 2 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.68 | −0.76 | −0.98 | −0.43 | 0 | 18 | Energy Infrastructure 2.3 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.65 | −0.73 | −0.95 | −0.42 | ▲ 1 | 18 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2.7 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.62 | −0.73 | −0.89 | −0.40 | ▲ 3 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.55 | −0.58 | −0.71 | −0.32 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.75 | −0.55 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.7 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.76 | −0.52 | −0.65 | −0.30 | 0 | 8 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.49 | −0.51 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 5 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.45 | −0.37 | −0.49 | −0.22 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.55 | −0.36 | −0.49 | −0.21 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.4 · Nascent |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Low 0.28 | −0.29 | −0.36 | −0.16 | ▲ 12 | 8 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.29 | −0.27 | −0.31 | −0.14 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Low 0.24 | −0.23 | −0.29 | −0.13 | ▲ 9 | 6 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 1.8 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.23 | −0.23 | −0.31 | −0.13 | ▲ 6 | 5 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.7 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.38 | −1.24 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −1.11 | −1.04 | −1.01 | −0.89 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.06 | −0.63 | −0.36 | −0.88 | −0.79 | −1.09 | −1.32 | −0.79 | −0.90 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.22 | −0.38 | −0.34 | −0.76 | −0.76 | −0.95 | −1.26 | −1.08 | −0.87 |
| Pandemic | −0.37 | −0.42 | −0.34 | −1.01 | −0.88 | −0.95 | −0.88 | −0.87 | −0.87 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.33 | −0.33 | −0.30 | · | −0.78 | −0.75 | −0.78 | −0.76 | −1.14 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.24 | · | −0.81 | −0.42 | −0.98 | −1.36 | −1.12 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.39 | −0.31 | −0.40 | −0.50 | · | −1.01 | · | −1.03 | −1.03 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.32 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.80 | −0.60 | −0.83 | −0.70 | −0.39 | −0.34 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.76 | −0.23 | −0.56 | −0.25 | −0.63 | −0.34 | −0.25 | −0.25 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.37 | −0.28 | −0.75 | −0.61 | −0.84 | −0.36 | −0.04 | · |
| Energy supply shock | −0.06 | −0.41 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.38 | −0.45 | −0.43 | −0.39 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.13 | −0.45 | −0.49 | · | −0.50 | −0.47 | · | −0.19 | −0.19 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.03 | −0.38 | −0.32 | · | −0.17 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.29 | −0.37 |
| Food and water shock | −0.03 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.32 | −0.31 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.27 | −0.30 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Guyana is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
100-day pandemic defence S24+1.1
Sovereign debt reset S19−1.8
Great-power détente S18−9.3
Digital state leapfrog S23−9.6
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−18.4
Yield revolution S22−19.5
Superintelligence takeoff S15−19.7
Emerging-market breakout S20−26.0
Middle East settlement S21−38.1
Energy abundance S16−64.1
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +1.1 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 15 | 136 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −1.8 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 33 | 161 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 6.3 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −9.3 | 11.5 | 20.8 | 23 | 159 | Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −9.6 | 6.6 | 16.2 | 16 | 147 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −18.4 | 10.1 | 28.5 | 17 | 166 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −19.5 | 2.7 | 22.3 | 16 | 184 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −19.7 | 5.3 | 25.0 | 10 | 97 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Loser | −26.0 | 9.9 | 35.9 | 24 | 196 | Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Loser | −38.1 | 4.1 | 42.1 | 24 | 190 | Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −64.1 | 2.3 | 66.4 | 13 | 183 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |