Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years24.2rank 74 of 197 · 3 years: 24.0
Worst case−17.4%Energy supply shock · tail −16.5%
Opportunity · 10 years−3.7rank 108 of 197 · 3 years: −3.3
Best case+14Energy abundance · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed21%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.08expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; share of exports going to china and the united states.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Honduras’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.88
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.84
Pandemic S14−0.78
Global financial crisis S03−0.68
Disaster in the core S10−0.68
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.67
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.64
AI diffusion shock S13−0.64
Chokepoint closure S05−0.61
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.57
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.43
Food and water shock S11−0.32
Mass displacement S08−0.21
Hybrid campaign S06−0.19
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.84 | −0.88 | −1.07 | −0.47 | ▼ 4 | 32 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.73 | −0.84 | −1.01 | −0.46 | ▼ 1 | 26 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.64 | −0.78 | −0.97 | −0.43 | 0 | 27 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.59 | −0.68 | −0.88 | −0.39 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Economic Output & Productivity 3.6 · Nascent |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.85 | −0.68 | −0.92 | −0.40 | ▼ 4 | 24 | Energy Infrastructure 4.3 · Nascent |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.59 | −0.67 | −0.85 | −0.37 | ▼ 2 | 21 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.59 | −0.64 | −0.80 | −0.36 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.59 | −0.64 | −0.78 | −0.35 | ▲ 1 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.64 | −0.61 | −0.76 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 23 | Maritime Power 1.2 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.72 | −0.57 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.56 | −0.43 | −0.53 | −0.24 | ▼ 1 | 10 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.32 | −0.32 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▼ 1 | 10 | Resource Infrastructure 3 · Nascent |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.33 | −0.21 | −0.29 | −0.13 | 0 | 7 | Internal Security & Order 5.3 · Nascent |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.21 | −0.19 | −0.23 | −0.10 | ▲ 2 | 7 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.14 | −1.23 | −0.46 | −0.51 | −0.51 | −1.16 | −1.37 | −1.32 | −1.17 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.80 | −1.27 | −0.45 | −0.45 | −0.45 | −1.13 | −1.06 | −1.03 | −0.90 |
| Pandemic | −0.74 | −0.42 | −0.35 | −1.02 | −0.90 | −0.96 | −0.90 | −0.88 | −0.88 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.33 | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.68 | −0.68 | −0.85 | −1.14 | −0.98 | −0.78 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.05 | −1.41 | −0.42 | −1.04 | −0.47 | −1.17 | −0.63 | −0.47 | −0.47 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.07 | −0.56 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.70 | −0.96 | −1.16 | −0.70 | −0.80 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.66 | −0.35 | −0.32 | · | −0.82 | −0.79 | −0.82 | −0.80 | −1.20 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.70 | −0.36 | −0.32 | −0.96 | −0.72 | −0.99 | −0.84 | −0.46 | −0.41 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −1.01 | −0.85 | · | −0.45 | −0.97 | −0.39 | −0.78 | −1.00 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.39 | · | −0.84 | −0.42 | −0.98 | −1.37 | −1.12 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.70 | −0.23 | −0.30 | −0.37 | · | −0.75 | · | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.44 | −0.42 | −0.45 | −0.21 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.44 | −0.36 | −0.50 | −0.21 | −0.03 | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.14 | −0.31 | −0.33 | · | −0.34 | −0.32 | · | −0.13 | −0.13 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Honduras is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Energy abundance S16+14.0
Emerging-market breakout S20+11.9
Sovereign debt reset S19+6.1
Middle East settlement S21+5.4
100-day pandemic defence S24+3.0
Great-power détente S18−4.1
Digital state leapfrog S23−4.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−10.4
Yield revolution S22−13.7
Superintelligence takeoff S15−26.7
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +14.0 | 15.4 | 1.4 | 18 | 76 | Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +11.9 | 19.2 | 7.3 | 30 | 64 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +6.1 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 30 | 68 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5.5 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +5.4 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 30 | 114 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.5 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +3.0 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 18 | 121 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −4.1 | 16.4 | 20.5 | 29 | 130 | Export Capability & Sophistication 5 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −4.8 | 12.3 | 17.1 | 18 | 105 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −10.4 | 11.4 | 21.8 | 19 | 131 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −13.7 | 7.5 | 21.3 | 19 | 164 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −26.7 | 5.6 | 32.3 | 12 | 147 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |