Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years4.0rank 193 of 197 · 3 years: 3.9
Worst case−3.0%Energy supply shock · tail −2.9%
Opportunity · 10 years+36.2rank 2 of 197 · 3 years: +35.9
Best case+81Energy abundance · gainer in 9 of 10
Shock absorbed62%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.04expected index points from best practice
Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkResource Infrastructureweakest point in 4 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: public debt relative to gdp; share of population aged 65 and over; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; urban share of population; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Japan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.49
Pandemic S14−0.46
AI diffusion shock S13−0.45
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.43
Chokepoint closure S05−0.39
Global financial crisis S03−0.38
Disaster in the core S10−0.36
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.30
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.27
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.27
Hybrid campaign S06−0.17
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.15
Food and water shock S11−0.15
Mass displacement S08−0.08
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.96 | −0.49 | −1.24 | −0.46 | 0 | 9 | Resource Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.81 | −0.46 | −1.25 | −0.46 | 0 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.8 · Established |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.84 | −0.45 | −1.15 | −0.45 | 0 | 12 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 14.4 · Established |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.79 | −0.43 | −1.14 | −0.42 | 0 | 10 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 13.5 · Established |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.83 | −0.39 | −0.98 | −0.37 | 0 | 8 | Resource Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.70 | −0.38 | −1.05 | −0.38 | 0 | 10 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 13.7 · Established |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.93 | −0.36 | −1.02 | −0.36 | 0 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 16.2 · Advanced |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.57 | −0.30 | −0.81 | −0.30 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 15.4 · Advanced |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.67 | −0.27 | −0.68 | −0.25 | 0 | 8 | Resource Infrastructure 11.4 · Transitional |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.49 | −0.27 | −0.71 | −0.27 | 0 | 6 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 14.8 · Established |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.37 | −0.17 | −0.41 | −0.16 | 0 | 5 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 13.5 · Established |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Low 0.32 | −0.15 | −0.33 | −0.14 | 0 | 5 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 11.9 · Transitional |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.31 | −0.15 | −0.41 | −0.15 | 0 | 5 | Resource Infrastructure 11.4 · Transitional |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.26 | −0.08 | −0.23 | −0.08 | ▲ 1 | 2 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 15.1 · Advanced |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.11 | −0.68 | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.64 | −0.76 | −0.73 | −0.65 |
| Pandemic | −0.49 | −0.24 | −0.20 | −0.59 | −0.52 | −0.56 | −0.52 | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.59 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.65 | −0.49 | −0.67 | −0.57 | −0.31 | −0.28 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.54 | −0.63 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.56 | −0.53 | −0.51 | −0.45 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.05 | −0.65 | −0.55 | · | −0.29 | −0.62 | −0.25 | −0.50 | −0.64 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.48 | −0.64 | −0.55 | −0.44 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.73 | −0.22 | −0.54 | −0.24 | −0.61 | −0.33 | −0.24 | −0.24 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.38 | −0.16 | −0.14 | · | −0.37 | −0.36 | −0.37 | −0.36 | −0.55 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.51 | −0.14 | −0.18 | −0.22 | · | −0.45 | · | −0.45 | −0.45 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.32 | −0.28 | −0.39 | −0.47 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.12 | −0.27 | −0.29 | · | −0.30 | −0.28 | · | −0.11 | −0.11 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.11 | · | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.25 | −0.35 | −0.29 | · | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.19 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.01 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Japan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Energy abundance S16+80.8
100-day pandemic defence S24+60.1
Superintelligence takeoff S15+57.5
Middle East settlement S21+48.8
Great-power détente S18+34.8
Emerging-market breakout S20+22.8
Digital state leapfrog S23+20.5
Yield revolution S22+15.4
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+10.0
Sovereign debt reset S19+2.1
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +80.8 | 80.9 | 0.1 | 84 | 1 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 16.3 · Advanced |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +60.1 | 61.0 | 0.8 | 82 | 7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7 · Advanced |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +57.5 | 66.3 | 8.8 | 81 | 3 | Digital & AI Competence 15.5 · Advanced |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +48.8 | 49.1 | 0.4 | 82 | 2 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 16 · Advanced |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +34.8 | 41.4 | 6.5 | 84 | 14 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 16 · Advanced |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +22.8 | 28.2 | 5.4 | 81 | 12 | Technical & Vocational Skills 15.5 · Advanced |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Gainer | +20.5 | 25.2 | 4.6 | 78 | 5 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 14.7 · Established |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Gainer | +15.4 | 18.2 | 2.9 | 83 | 14 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 16.3 · Advanced |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +10.0 | 24.4 | 14.3 | 83 | 42 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 16.3 · Advanced |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.1 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 77 | 114 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 14.5 · Established |