Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 13 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years59.2rank 9 of 197 · 3 years: 58.2
Worst case−42.6%Energy supply shock · tail −39.8%
Opportunity · 10 years−11.3rank 164 of 197 · 3 years: −10.9
Best case+6Middle East settlement · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed10%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.27expected index points from best practice
Breadth5 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; adult obesity rate; internet users as a share of population; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation; low life expectancy at birth; staple foods among the top five imports.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Kiribati’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.94
AI diffusion shock S13−0.85
Chokepoint closure S05−0.84
Pandemic S14−0.81
Global financial crisis S03−0.78
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.75
Food and water shock S11−0.73
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.63
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.55
Disaster in the core S10−0.49
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.45
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.43
Hybrid campaign S06−0.31
Mass displacement S08−0.18
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.91 | −0.94 | −1.01 | −0.48 | ▼ 1 | 14 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.83 | −0.85 | −0.93 | −0.42 | ▼ 3 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.94 | −0.84 | −0.90 | −0.44 | ▼ 3 | 11 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.68 | −0.81 | −0.91 | −0.41 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.64 | −0.78 | −0.86 | −0.39 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Economic Output & Productivity 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.68 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.37 | 0 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.67 | −0.73 | −0.84 | −0.37 | 0 | 15 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.58 | −0.63 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▼ 1 | 9 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.44 | −0.55 | −0.62 | −0.28 | ▲ 4 | 13 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0.8 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.57 | −0.49 | −0.59 | −0.26 | 0 | 14 | Energy Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.64 | −0.45 | −0.53 | −0.25 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.60 | −0.43 | −0.46 | −0.21 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.37 | −0.31 | −0.34 | −0.16 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.26 | −0.18 | −0.22 | −0.10 | ▲ 4 | 9 | Labour & Employment 2.8 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −1.12 | −0.30 | −0.62 | −0.62 | −1.40 | −1.63 | −1.32 | −1.39 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.08 | −0.53 | −0.28 | −1.46 | −1.10 | −1.54 | −1.31 | −0.72 | −0.64 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −1.28 | −0.38 | · | −0.75 | −1.62 | −0.65 | −1.25 | −1.61 |
| Pandemic | −0.08 | −0.49 | −0.25 | −1.22 | −0.98 | −1.14 | −1.07 | −1.04 | −1.04 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.08 | −0.42 | −0.24 | −0.86 | −0.86 | −1.08 | −1.44 | −1.17 | −0.88 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.08 | −1.19 | −0.25 | −0.47 | −0.47 | −1.17 | −1.09 | −1.05 | −0.94 |
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.74 | −0.24 | −1.07 | −1.02 | −1.09 | −0.51 | −0.87 | −1.00 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.08 | −0.39 | −0.22 | · | −0.92 | −0.88 | −0.92 | −0.90 | −1.35 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.46 | −0.18 | −0.65 | −0.59 | −0.81 | −0.98 | −0.59 | −0.67 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.00 | −0.21 | −0.78 | −0.35 | −0.88 | −0.47 | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.08 | · | −0.33 | −0.40 | −0.89 | −1.29 | −1.06 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.08 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.46 | · | −0.93 | · | −0.94 | −0.94 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.05 | −0.60 | −0.32 | · | −0.69 | −0.65 | · | −0.26 | −0.26 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.39 | −0.32 | −0.44 | −0.19 | −0.02 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Kiribati is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Middle East settlement S21+6.3
Energy abundance S16+5.7
Emerging-market breakout S20+4.7
100-day pandemic defence S24+0.9
Sovereign debt reset S19−0.4
Digital state leapfrog S23−9.6
Yield revolution S22−12.5
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−19.5
Great-power détente S18−29.2
Superintelligence takeoff S15−41.0
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +6.3 | 8.3 | 2.1 | 14 | 106 | Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +5.7 | 6.6 | 0.8 | 7 | 114 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +4.7 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 10 | 123 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +0.9 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 8 | 139 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −0.4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 17 | 150 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 2.5 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −9.6 | 5.9 | 15.6 | 9 | 150 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −12.5 | 5.0 | 17.5 | 7 | 161 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −19.5 | 7.2 | 26.7 | 9 | 169 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −29.2 | 3.5 | 32.7 | 8 | 195 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −41.0 | 3.9 | 44.9 | 5 | 186 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |