Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · MLI

Mali

Baseline index 3.41Rank 163 of 197NascentAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years35.7rank 38 of 197 · 3 years: 35.9
Worst case−30.0%Energy supply shock · tail −24.5%
Opportunity · 10 years−4.6rank 113 of 197 · 3 years: −7.2
Best case+13Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed15%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.15expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Mali’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−1.02
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.77
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.72
Chokepoint closure S05−0.70
Pandemic S14−0.64
Mass displacement S08−0.63
Global financial crisis S03−0.60
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.57
Food and water shock S11−0.55
Disaster in the core S10−0.50
AI diffusion shock S13−0.49
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.46
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.32
Hybrid campaign S06−0.25
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.94−1.02−1.18−0.52▼ 328Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.65−0.77−0.93−0.41023Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.6 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.62−0.72−0.81−0.37024Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.71−0.70−0.81−0.36023Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.51−0.64−0.74−0.33▲ 118Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception
Mass displacement S08High 0.88−0.63−0.77−0.34▼ 318Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.5 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.49−0.60−0.72−0.32▲ 518Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1.8 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.70−0.57−0.67−0.30012Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.2 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.51−0.55−0.66−0.29▲ 621Population Health 2.4 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.57−0.50−0.61−0.27020Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.43−0.49−0.55−0.25▲ 214Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.61−0.46−0.53−0.25▲ 217Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Low 0.28−0.32−0.38−0.17▲ 612Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.27−0.25−0.29−0.13011Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.06−1.47−0.49−0.61−0.61−1.38−1.63−1.57−1.40
Sovereign funding crisis−0.06−0.65−0.32−0.90−0.81−1.11−1.34−0.81−0.92
Infrastructure collapse−0.41−1.15−0.37−0.41−0.41−1.02−0.96−0.94−0.82
Chokepoint closure−0.06−1.20−0.81·−0.54−1.16−0.46−0.93−1.19
Pandemic−0.45−0.36−0.26−0.87−0.76−0.81−0.76−0.74−0.74
Mass displacement·−0.65−0.43−1.33−1.09−1.49−0.63−0.08·
Global financial crisis−0.22−0.31−0.24−0.61−0.61−0.76−1.02−0.87−0.70
Legitimacy crisis−0.29·−0.77−0.44−1.03−1.44−1.18··
Food and water shock−0.06−0.63−0.25−0.76−0.73−0.78−0.36−0.63−0.71
Disaster in the core−0.03−1.05−0.28−0.78−0.35−0.87−0.47−0.35−0.35
AI diffusion shock−0.37−0.29−0.23−0.77−0.58−0.80−0.68−0.37−0.33
Single-supplier cut-off−0.48−0.27−0.31−0.44·−0.88·−0.90−0.90
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.29−0.18−0.15·−0.43−0.41−0.43−0.42−0.63
Hybrid campaign−0.14−0.42−0.39·−0.47−0.44·−0.18−0.18

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Mali is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+12.9
Energy abundance S16+7.9
Sovereign debt reset S19+7.7
Middle East settlement S21+6.7
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+4.9
Yield revolution S22+4.3
Great-power détente S18−2.9
100-day pandemic defence S24−5.9
Digital state leapfrog S23−13.0
Superintelligence takeoff S15−20.6
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Gainer+12.915.82.91860Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed+7.99.01.210102Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+7.711.53.82350Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed+6.712.65.920102Energy Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+4.911.06.11462Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+4.38.34.01464Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−2.94.87.717125Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−5.95.911.813175Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−13.010.123.111169Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−20.62.723.47103Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception