Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · MRT

Mauritania

Baseline index 3.58Rank 158 of 197NascentAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years40.5rank 30 of 197 · 3 years: 41.4
Worst case−28.5%Energy supply shock · tail −26.9%
Opportunity · 10 years−5.6rank 119 of 197 · 3 years: −8.2
Best case+10Energy abundance · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed17%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.34expected index points from best practice
Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; public debt relative to gdp; refugees hosted per head of population; low life expectancy at birth; youth unemployment rate; share of population aged under 15.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Mauritania’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−1.02
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.94
Food and water shock S11−0.93
Global financial crisis S03−0.92
Pandemic S14−0.80
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.77
Chokepoint closure S05−0.74
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.66
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.58
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.57
Mass displacement S08−0.55
AI diffusion shock S13−0.52
Disaster in the core S10−0.43
Hybrid campaign S06−0.21
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.97−1.02−1.23−0.55▼ 327Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.79−0.94−1.14−0.50▼ 418Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.3 · Inception
Food and water shock S11High 0.88−0.93−1.16−0.51▼ 529Population Health 1.9 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.75−0.92−1.10−0.48▼ 419Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.9 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.64−0.80−0.93−0.42▼ 315Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.66−0.77−0.88−0.40▼ 317Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.77−0.74−0.91−0.40013Maritime Power 0.9 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.81−0.66−0.79−0.35▼ 28Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.53−0.58−0.68−0.31011Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.79−0.57−0.68−0.32▼ 212Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08High 0.76−0.55−0.68−0.30▼ 311Health System Capability 2.8 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.46−0.52−0.59−0.27▲ 212Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.49−0.43−0.53−0.23▲ 110Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.23−0.21−0.25−0.11▲ 14Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.10−1.45−0.54−0.60−0.60−1.36−1.61−1.55−1.38
Sovereign funding crisis−0.10−0.78−0.44−1.08−0.97−1.34−1.62−0.97−1.11
Food and water shock−0.10−1.06−0.48−1.30−1.24−1.33−0.62−1.06−1.22
Global financial crisis−0.32−0.47−0.42−0.94−0.94−1.17−1.57−1.34−1.07
Pandemic−0.47−0.45−0.37−1.10−0.96−1.03−0.96−0.94−0.94
Infrastructure collapse−0.44−1.23−0.44−0.44−0.44−1.09−1.02−1.00−0.88
Chokepoint closure−0.09−1.22−1.01·−0.55−1.18−0.47−0.94−1.21
Legitimacy crisis−0.33·−0.96−0.50−1.16−1.62−1.33··
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.40−0.33−0.30·−0.78−0.75−0.78−0.76−1.14
Single-supplier cut-off−0.48−0.34−0.44−0.54·−1.10·−1.12−1.12
Mass displacement·−0.56−0.42−1.14−0.93−1.28−0.54−0.07·
AI diffusion shock−0.39−0.31−0.28−0.82−0.61−0.84−0.72−0.40−0.35
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.90−0.27−0.66−0.30−0.75−0.40−0.30−0.30
Hybrid campaign−0.13−0.35−0.38·−0.39−0.36·−0.15−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Mauritania is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+9.7
Sovereign debt reset S19+9.3
Yield revolution S22+8.6
Middle East settlement S21+7.1
Emerging-market breakout S20+6.3
Great-power détente S18+2.0
100-day pandemic defence S24−4.6
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−5.9
Digital state leapfrog S23−12.9
Superintelligence takeoff S15−31.5
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed+9.710.91.21293Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+9.313.13.82435Financial Regulation & Integrity 4.5 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+8.612.54.01439Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed+7.112.95.82298Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+6.315.69.320105Technical & Vocational Skills 3.5 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+2.09.57.51997Export Capability & Sophistication 3.3 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−4.67.111.712164Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed−5.910.516.413110Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−12.99.622.611168Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−31.53.234.88167Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception