Mauritius · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years13.2rank 126 of 197 · 3 years: 13.7

Worst case−10.8%Energy supply shock · tail −9.7%

Opportunity · 10 years+8.8rank 49 of 197 · 3 years: +8.1

Best case+22Energy abundance · gainer in 6 of 10

Shock absorbed34%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.72expected index points from best practice

Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Mauritius’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.88

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.75

Chokepoint closure S05−0.73

Pandemic S14−0.71

Global financial crisis S03−0.63

AI diffusion shock S13−0.59

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.46

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.46

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.41

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.41

Food and water shock S11−0.36

Disaster in the core S10−0.32

Hybrid campaign S06−0.20

Mass displacement S08−0.16

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.93	−0.88	−1.18	−0.52	▼ 3	22	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.73	−0.75	−1.04	−0.46	▼ 1	16	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.79	−0.73	−0.94	−0.41	▼ 2	15	Resource Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.69	−0.71	−1.07	−0.47	▼ 1	19	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.74	−0.63	−1.10	−0.48	▼ 2	14	Economic Output & Productivity 6.7 · Foundational
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.68	−0.59	−0.91	−0.40	0	20	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.50	−0.46	−0.70	−0.31	▼ 1	10	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.66	−0.46	−0.65	−0.29	▼ 2	10	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.50	−0.41	−0.72	−0.32	▲ 1	10	Energy Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.67	−0.41	−0.68	−0.30	▲ 1	12	Force Generation & Mobilisation 2.1 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.47	−0.36	−0.62	−0.27	▲ 1	9	Resource Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.53	−0.32	−0.58	−0.25	▲ 1	9	Energy Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.24	−0.20	−0.27	−0.12	▲ 2	6	Air Power 1 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Low 0.34	−0.16	−0.30	−0.13	▲ 1	6	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 10.3 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.16	−1.23	−0.46	−0.51	−0.51	−1.15	−1.37	−1.32	−1.17
Infrastructure collapse	−0.91	−1.10	−0.39	−0.39	−0.39	−0.98	−0.92	−0.90	−0.79
Chokepoint closure	−0.09	−1.20	−0.99	·	−0.54	−1.15	−0.46	−0.92	−1.19
Pandemic	−0.75	−0.38	−0.31	−0.92	−0.80	−0.86	−0.80	−0.79	−0.79
Global financial crisis	−0.32	−0.32	−0.29	−0.64	−0.64	−0.79	−1.06	−0.91	−0.73
AI diffusion shock	−0.72	−0.33	−0.30	−0.88	−0.66	−0.90	−0.77	−0.42	−0.38
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.56	−0.25	−0.22	·	−0.57	−0.55	−0.57	−0.56	−0.84
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.83	−0.24	−0.31	−0.39	·	−0.78	·	−0.79	−0.79
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.34	−0.19	−0.48	−0.43	−0.59	−0.72	−0.43	−0.49
Legitimacy crisis	−0.30	·	−0.60	−0.30	−0.70	−0.98	−0.80	·	·
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.41	−0.18	−0.50	−0.48	−0.51	−0.24	−0.41	−0.47
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.66	−0.20	−0.49	−0.22	−0.55	−0.29	−0.22	−0.22
Hybrid campaign	−0.15	−0.33	−0.36	·	−0.37	−0.34	·	−0.14	−0.14
Mass displacement	·	−0.17	−0.13	−0.34	−0.28	−0.38	−0.16	−0.02	·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Mauritius is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+22.2

Middle East settlement S21+16.6

Great-power détente S18+14.0

100-day pandemic defence S24+13.4

Emerging-market breakout S20+13.3

Yield revolution S22+11.7

Sovereign debt reset S19+7.3

Digital state leapfrog S23+6.3

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+2.2

Superintelligence takeoff S15−9.5

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+22.2	22.9	0.7	25	47	Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+16.6	19.9	3.3	37	59	Alliances & Security Cooperation 5.5 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+14.0	18.7	4.7	41	48	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6.8 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+13.4	20.7	7.3	33	75	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+13.3	20.6	7.3	44	53	Energy Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+11.7	14.1	2.4	34	25	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+7.3	9.3	1.9	57	54	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 11 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+6.3	19.1	12.8	34	43	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	+2.2	23.0	20.8	35	76	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Mixed	−9.5	11.6	21.1	22	63	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception