Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 13 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years52.2rank 15 of 197 · 3 years: 52.8
Worst case−40.7%Energy supply shock · tail −37.8%
Opportunity · 10 years−11.5rank 165 of 197 · 3 years: −11.0
Best case+8Middle East settlement · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed10%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.19expected index points from best practice
Breadth4 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; adult obesity rate; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Micronesia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.95
Food and water shock S11−0.85
Chokepoint closure S05−0.84
Global financial crisis S03−0.81
AI diffusion shock S13−0.73
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.70
Pandemic S14−0.70
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.47
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.44
Disaster in the core S10−0.43
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.41
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.41
Hybrid campaign S06−0.26
Mass displacement S08−0.18
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.90 | −0.95 | −1.02 | −0.48 | ▼ 2 | 15 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.79 | −0.85 | −0.97 | −0.44 | ▼ 3 | 16 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.93 | −0.84 | −0.92 | −0.44 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.64 | −0.81 | −0.88 | −0.40 | ▼ 3 | 13 | Economic Output & Productivity 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.70 | −0.73 | −0.81 | −0.36 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.65 | −0.70 | −0.77 | −0.35 | ▼ 4 | 9 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.58 | −0.70 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▼ 2 | 12 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.41 | −0.47 | −0.51 | −0.23 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.62 | −0.44 | −0.53 | −0.24 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.50 | −0.43 | −0.52 | −0.23 | 0 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 1.4 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.57 | −0.41 | −0.45 | −0.20 | ▼ 2 | 7 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Low 0.33 | −0.41 | −0.46 | −0.20 | ▲ 4 | 11 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.7 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.30 | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.13 | ▼ 1 | 5 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.26 | −0.18 | −0.22 | −0.10 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Labour & Employment 2.8 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −1.17 | −0.31 | −0.62 | −0.62 | −1.39 | −1.62 | −1.35 | −1.41 |
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.85 | −0.27 | −1.25 | −1.19 | −1.28 | −0.60 | −1.02 | −1.17 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −1.31 | −0.41 | · | −0.73 | −1.57 | −0.63 | −1.22 | −1.62 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.11 | −0.43 | −0.24 | −0.88 | −0.88 | −1.10 | −1.46 | −1.18 | −0.99 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.11 | −0.46 | −0.26 | −1.27 | −0.95 | −1.31 | −1.11 | −0.61 | −0.54 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.11 | −0.43 | −0.24 | · | −1.02 | −0.99 | −1.02 | −1.00 | −1.44 |
| Pandemic | −0.11 | −0.42 | −0.22 | −1.02 | −0.90 | −0.96 | −0.90 | −0.88 | −0.88 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.11 | −0.77 | −0.18 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.71 | −0.66 | −0.65 | −0.57 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.11 | · | −0.35 | −0.38 | −0.88 | −1.23 | −1.01 | · | · |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.88 | −0.18 | −0.69 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.41 | −0.31 | −0.31 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.11 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.44 | · | −0.88 | · | −0.90 | −0.90 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.35 | −0.13 | −0.49 | −0.44 | −0.60 | −0.73 | −0.44 | −0.50 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.06 | −0.48 | −0.31 | · | −0.55 | −0.51 | · | −0.20 | −0.20 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.39 | −0.32 | −0.44 | −0.19 | −0.02 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Micronesia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Middle East settlement S21+7.7
Emerging-market breakout S20+6.1
Energy abundance S16+5.9
100-day pandemic defence S24+0.3
Sovereign debt reset S19−1.7
Digital state leapfrog S23−9.3
Yield revolution S22−12.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−22.8
Great-power détente S18−27.5
Superintelligence takeoff S15−43.7
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +7.7 | 9.8 | 2.1 | 16 | 92 | Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +6.1 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 13 | 108 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +5.9 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 112 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +0.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 8 | 147 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −1.7 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 17 | 160 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 2.5 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −9.3 | 5.9 | 15.2 | 9 | 144 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −12.3 | 5.3 | 17.6 | 7 | 160 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −22.8 | 6.2 | 29.1 | 9 | 177 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −27.5 | 5.0 | 32.5 | 10 | 194 | Export Capability & Sophistication 1.3 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −43.7 | 3.3 | 47.1 | 5 | 193 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |