Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · MOZ

Mozambique

Baseline index 4.12Rank 137 of 197NascentAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years26.2rank 69 of 197 · 3 years: 26.9
Worst case−22.9%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −20.3%
Opportunity · 10 years−7.0rank 139 of 197 · 3 years: −7.8
Best case+21Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed19%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.98expected index points from best practice
Breadth1 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkWater, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructureweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Legitimacy crisis, Single-supplier cut-off. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; low life expectancy at birth; share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head; public debt relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Mozambique’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.94
Global financial crisis S03−0.88
Pandemic S14−0.68
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.64
Food and water shock S11−0.62
Disaster in the core S10−0.60
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.59
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.53
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.53
AI diffusion shock S13−0.45
Energy supply shock S09−0.36
Chokepoint closure S05−0.31
Mass displacement S08−0.28
Hybrid campaign S06−0.14
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.80−0.94−1.16−0.51▼ 815Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.73−0.88−1.07−0.47▼ 218Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.55−0.68−0.82−0.36▼ 114Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12Medium 0.55−0.64−0.75−0.34012Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11High 0.60−0.62−0.79−0.35▼ 613Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.2 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10High 0.70−0.60−0.76−0.33▼ 814Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.74−0.59−0.74−0.33▼ 29Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.2 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.48−0.53−0.64−0.28▼ 111Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.73−0.53−0.66−0.30▼ 312Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.39−0.45−0.52−0.23▲ 112Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09Medium 0.35−0.36−0.45−0.20▲ 611Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Low 0.33−0.31−0.39−0.17▲ 611Maritime Power 2 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.40−0.28−0.36−0.1609Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.15−0.14−0.16−0.0708Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.4 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Sovereign funding crisis−0.10−0.79−0.44−1.09−0.98−1.35−1.64−0.98−1.12
Global financial crisis−0.35−0.45−0.40−0.89−0.89−1.12−1.49−1.27−1.02
Pandemic−0.58−0.37−0.31−0.91−0.79−0.85−0.79−0.78−0.78
Infrastructure collapse−0.57−0.97−0.35−0.35−0.35−0.87−0.81−0.79−0.69
Food and water shock−0.07−0.71−0.32−0.87−0.83−0.89−0.41−0.71−0.81
Disaster in the core−0.04−1.25−0.37−0.93−0.42−1.04−0.56−0.42−0.42
Legitimacy crisis−0.35·−0.86−0.44−1.03−1.44−1.18··
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.47−0.29−0.27·−0.69−0.66−0.69−0.67−1.01
Single-supplier cut-off−0.68−0.30−0.39−0.48·−0.97·−0.98−0.98
AI diffusion shock−0.45−0.26−0.23−0.68−0.51−0.70−0.60−0.33−0.29
Energy supply shock−0.08−0.51−0.19−0.21−0.21−0.48−0.56−0.54−0.48
Chokepoint closure−0.04−0.50−0.43·−0.23−0.48−0.19−0.39−0.50
Mass displacement·−0.29−0.22−0.59−0.48−0.66−0.28−0.03·
Hybrid campaign−0.10−0.23−0.25·−0.25−0.24·−0.10−0.10

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Mozambique is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+21.4
Sovereign debt reset S19+15.6
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+9.4
Yield revolution S22+9.2
Great-power détente S18+3.3
100-day pandemic defence S24−3.0
Digital state leapfrog S23−6.8
Superintelligence takeoff S15−21.0
Middle East settlement S21−37.6
Energy abundance S16−67.1
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Gainer+21.422.41.12519Technical & Vocational Skills 4.5 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Gainer+15.619.23.72711Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5.3 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+9.414.24.81745Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+9.213.03.81833Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+3.310.77.42488Export Capability & Sophistication 4.3 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−3.08.211.217158Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−6.814.321.215122Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−21.03.324.210110Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Loser−37.66.444.027189Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−67.13.270.415186Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception