Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years24.6rank 73 of 197 · 3 years: 26.1
Worst case−18.4%Global financial crisis · tail −16.8%
Opportunity · 10 years−13.1rank 174 of 197 · 3 years: −11.7
Best case+8Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed17%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.85expected index points from best practice
Breadth4 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Geoeconomic confrontation, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; industry as a share of gdp; share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head; low life expectancy at birth.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Papua New Guinea’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Global financial crisis S03−0.70
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.61
AI diffusion shock S13−0.60
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.59
Pandemic S14−0.58
Disaster in the core S10−0.56
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.55
Food and water shock S11−0.52
Energy supply shock S09−0.40
Chokepoint closure S05−0.39
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.39
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.34
Hybrid campaign S06−0.25
Mass displacement S08−0.21
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.59 | −0.70 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▲ 4 | 16 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2.1 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.57 | −0.61 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▼ 3 | 13 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.54 | −0.60 | −0.68 | −0.31 | ▲ 4 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.51 | −0.59 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▲ 9 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.45 | −0.58 | −0.67 | −0.30 | ▲ 7 | 13 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.63 | −0.56 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▼ 3 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.78 | −0.55 | −0.67 | −0.31 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.48 | −0.52 | −0.63 | −0.28 | ▲ 4 | 13 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Medium 0.39 | −0.40 | −0.49 | −0.22 | ▲ 12 | 7 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Medium 0.42 | −0.39 | −0.49 | −0.22 | ▲ 8 | 8 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 1.8 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Low 0.33 | −0.39 | −0.45 | −0.20 | ▲ 12 | 7 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.44 | −0.34 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 9 | 8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.28 | −0.25 | −0.30 | −0.13 | ▼ 2 | 9 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.30 | −0.21 | −0.26 | −0.11 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Health System Capability 3.6 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis | −0.24 | −0.36 | −0.32 | −0.72 | −0.72 | −0.90 | −1.20 | −1.02 | −0.82 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.32 | · | −0.82 | −0.79 | −0.82 | −0.80 | −1.21 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.39 | −0.36 | −0.32 | −0.96 | −0.72 | −0.99 | −0.84 | −0.46 | −0.41 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.06 | −0.49 | −0.28 | −0.68 | −0.62 | −0.85 | −1.03 | −0.62 | −0.70 |
| Pandemic | −0.41 | −0.32 | −0.26 | −0.78 | −0.68 | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.66 | −0.66 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.15 | −0.35 | −0.86 | −0.38 | −0.96 | −0.51 | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.46 | −0.33 | −0.42 | −0.52 | · | −1.06 | · | −1.07 | −1.07 |
| Food and water shock | −0.06 | −0.59 | −0.26 | −0.72 | −0.69 | −0.73 | −0.34 | −0.59 | −0.67 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.06 | −0.57 | −0.21 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.53 | −0.63 | −0.61 | −0.54 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.05 | −0.64 | −0.55 | · | −0.29 | −0.62 | −0.25 | −0.50 | −0.64 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.32 | −0.61 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.54 | −0.50 | −0.49 | −0.43 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.18 | · | −0.52 | −0.26 | −0.60 | −0.84 | −0.69 | · | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.14 | −0.42 | −0.46 | · | −0.47 | −0.44 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.44 | −0.36 | −0.50 | −0.21 | −0.03 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Papua New Guinea is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+7.9
Sovereign debt reset S19+3.7
100-day pandemic defence S24+0.7
Digital state leapfrog S23−4.7
Yield revolution S22−7.1
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−9.9
Great-power détente S18−19.5
Superintelligence takeoff S15−24.8
Middle East settlement S21−33.5
Energy abundance S16−67.5
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +7.9 | 16.8 | 8.9 | 22 | 90 | Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +3.7 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 24 | 93 | Health System Capability 4.3 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +0.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 12 | 142 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −4.7 | 9.7 | 14.3 | 13 | 103 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −7.1 | 8.4 | 15.5 | 13 | 131 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −9.9 | 8.9 | 18.9 | 13 | 129 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −19.5 | 10.6 | 30.1 | 22 | 182 | Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −24.8 | 4.3 | 29.1 | 8 | 133 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Loser | −33.5 | 6.9 | 40.4 | 23 | 184 | Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −67.5 | 3.0 | 70.5 | 11 | 188 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |