Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; share of exports going to china and the united states; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; industry as a share of gdp; low life expectancy at birth; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Peru’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.87 | −0.89 | −1.25 | −0.55 | ▼ 1 | 32 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.9 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.68 | −0.71 | −1.06 | −0.46 | 0 | 24 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.63 | −0.60 | −0.86 | −0.38 | 0 | 21 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.88 | −0.58 | −0.96 | −0.42 | ▼ 2 | 26 | Energy Infrastructure 7.8 · Foundational |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.51 | −0.46 | −0.72 | −0.32 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.50 | −0.43 | −0.75 | −0.33 | 0 | 14 | Labour & Employment 7.4 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.63 | −0.41 | −0.64 | −0.28 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.8 · Nascent |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.57 | −0.36 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.1 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.41 | −0.36 | −0.60 | −0.26 | 0 | 13 | Internal Security & Order 7.9 · Foundational |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Medium 0.36 | −0.30 | −0.46 | −0.20 | ▲ 4 | 14 | Energy Technologies 3.1 · Nascent |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.53 | −0.28 | −0.47 | −0.21 | 0 | 8 | Internal Security & Order 7.7 · Foundational |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.25 | −0.20 | −0.34 | −0.15 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Internal Security & Order 8.2 · Foundational |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.24 | −0.19 | −0.27 | −0.12 | 0 | 8 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.5 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Low 0.23 | −0.17 | −0.27 | −0.12 | ▲ 4 | 8 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 6.7 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −1.11 | −1.30 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −1.16 | −1.08 | −1.06 | −0.93 |
| Pandemic | −0.75 | −0.38 | −0.31 | −0.91 | −0.80 | −0.85 | −0.80 | −0.78 | −0.78 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.78 | −0.33 | −0.30 | −0.88 | −0.66 | −0.91 | −0.77 | −0.42 | −0.38 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.20 | −0.36 | −0.89 | −0.40 | −1.00 | −0.53 | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.58 | −0.24 | −0.22 | · | −0.57 | −0.55 | −0.57 | −0.55 | −0.83 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.43 | −0.43 | −0.54 | −0.72 | −0.62 | −0.49 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.30 | · | −0.61 | −0.30 | −0.71 | −0.99 | −0.81 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.70 | −0.19 | −0.24 | −0.30 | · | −0.60 | · | −0.61 | −0.61 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.30 | −0.17 | −0.41 | −0.37 | −0.51 | −0.62 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.07 | −0.42 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.39 | −0.46 | −0.45 | −0.40 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.29 | −0.22 | −0.59 | −0.48 | −0.66 | −0.28 | −0.03 | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.27 | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.22 | −0.25 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.14 | −0.30 | −0.33 | · | −0.34 | −0.32 | · | −0.13 | −0.13 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.02 | −0.28 | −0.24 | · | −0.12 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.21 | −0.27 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Peru is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +15.9 | 21.1 | 5.2 | 36 | 67 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +15.8 | 27.6 | 11.8 | 49 | 39 | Investment Attraction & Projection 9.3 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | +10.0 | 24.4 | 14.5 | 48 | 56 | Export Capability & Sophistication 9 · Transitional |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +6.2 | 18.8 | 12.7 | 31 | 44 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.2 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +4.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 51 | 85 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9.5 · Transitional |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +2.9 | 23.9 | 21.0 | 37 | 72 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −2.4 | 12.6 | 15.0 | 38 | 116 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | −8.0 | 7.9 | 15.8 | 46 | 166 | Internal Security & Order 8.7 · Foundational |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −10.2 | 11.6 | 21.8 | 22 | 65 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −11.7 | 9.6 | 21.3 | 32 | 157 | Energy Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |