Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · STP

São Tomé & Príncipe

Baseline index 2.85Rank 176 of 197InceptionAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years43.7rank 23 of 197 · 3 years: 40.7
Worst case−34.9%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −33.4%
Opportunity · 10 years−8.1rank 143 of 197 · 3 years: −9.8
Best case+12Sovereign debt reset · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed13%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.19expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; consumer price inflation; public debt relative to gdp; low life expectancy at birth; share of population aged under 15; services as a share of gdp; urban share of population; low real gdp per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in São Tomé & Príncipe’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−1.00
Energy supply shock S09−0.97
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.89
Global financial crisis S03−0.79
Food and water shock S11−0.72
AI diffusion shock S13−0.69
Pandemic S14−0.68
Chokepoint closure S05−0.66
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.54
Disaster in the core S10−0.47
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.31
Mass displacement S08−0.29
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.25
Hybrid campaign S06−0.19
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.85−1.00−1.18−0.52▼ 325Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.3 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 0.90−0.97−1.07−0.49▼ 425Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.80−0.89−0.98−0.44▼ 125Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.67−0.79−0.93−0.41▼ 122Investment Attraction & Projection 0.3 · Inception
Food and water shock S11High 0.67−0.72−0.85−0.38022Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.67−0.69−0.78−0.35▼ 119Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.57−0.68−0.77−0.35▲ 221Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.68−0.66−0.72−0.34▲ 118Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.77−0.54−0.65−0.31▲ 111Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.55−0.47−0.58−0.26▲ 420Energy Infrastructure 1.3 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.43−0.31−0.34−0.16▲ 513Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.43−0.29−0.37−0.16▲ 311Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Low 0.22−0.25−0.28−0.12▲ 1011Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.21−0.19−0.21−0.09▲ 39Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.84−0.32−1.18−1.05−1.46−1.77−1.06−1.22
Energy supply shock−0.04−1.24−0.36−0.61−0.61−1.36−1.62−1.56−1.37
Infrastructure collapse−0.11−1.46−0.34−0.55−0.55−1.37−1.28−1.25−1.09
Global financial crisis−0.11−0.42−0.25−0.84−0.84−1.05−1.41−1.21−0.96
Food and water shock−0.04−0.78−0.25−1.04−0.99−1.06−0.50−0.85−0.97
AI diffusion shock−0.11−0.44−0.27−1.18−0.88−1.22−1.03−0.57−0.51
Pandemic−0.11−0.41−0.22−1.00−0.85−0.94−0.87−0.86−0.86
Chokepoint closure−0.04−1.08−0.51·−0.54−1.16−0.47−0.93−1.20
Legitimacy crisis−0.11·−0.55−0.46−0.99−1.49−1.22··
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.98−0.20−0.74−0.33−0.83−0.44−0.33−0.33
Single-supplier cut-off−0.11−0.21−0.18−0.33·−0.66·−0.67−0.67
Mass displacement·−0.31−0.15−0.63−0.51−0.71−0.30−0.04·
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.10−0.15−0.09·−0.35−0.34−0.35−0.35−0.52
Hybrid campaign−0.06−0.35−0.27·−0.39−0.37·−0.15−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what São Tomé & Príncipe is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Sovereign debt reset S19+12.0
Emerging-market breakout S20+9.4
Yield revolution S22+3.0
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+2.2
Great-power détente S18−5.0
100-day pandemic defence S24−6.6
Middle East settlement S21−7.1
Energy abundance S16−11.6
Digital state leapfrog S23−12.8
Superintelligence takeoff S15−32.7
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Gainer+12.015.73.72525Financial Regulation & Integrity 4.5 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+9.411.82.51581Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+3.07.24.1974Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+2.29.16.91277Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−5.02.87.812137Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−6.65.011.610182Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed−7.18.715.816162Alliances & Security Cooperation 2.5 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−11.67.819.49156Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−12.88.921.710167Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−32.73.235.97169Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception