South Africa · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years9.2rank 156 of 197 · 3 years: 9.1

Worst case−6.8%Infrastructure collapse · tail −6.2%

Opportunity · 10 years+22.9rank 17 of 197 · 3 years: +22.8

Best case+36Energy abundance · gainer in 9 of 10

Shock absorbed43%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.45expected index points from best practice

Breadth6 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: youth unemployment rate; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; adult obesity rate; little renewable water per head; public debt relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in South Africa’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.73

Energy supply shock S09−0.66

Pandemic S14−0.60

AI diffusion shock S13−0.57

Global financial crisis S03−0.53

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.51

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.49

Chokepoint closure S05−0.48

Food and water shock S11−0.41

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.38

Disaster in the core S10−0.36

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.35

Mass displacement S08−0.22

Hybrid campaign S06−0.16

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.82	−0.73	−1.19	−0.52	▼ 1	20	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.1 · Foundational
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.89	−0.66	−1.16	−0.51	0	20	Energy Technologies 7.3 · Foundational
Pandemic S14	High 0.67	−0.60	−1.04	−0.46	▲ 1	16	Population Health 8.2 · Foundational
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.66	−0.57	−0.91	−0.40	▲ 1	14	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.1 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.69	−0.53	−1.03	−0.45	0	16	Labour & Employment 8.9 · Foundational
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.65	−0.51	−0.94	−0.41	▼ 3	15	Internal Security & Order 8.9 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.86	−0.49	−0.89	−0.39	▼ 3	14	Force Generation & Mobilisation 8.3 · Foundational
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.68	−0.48	−0.82	−0.36	▲ 1	16	Maritime Power 6.5 · Foundational
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.57	−0.41	−0.75	−0.33	▼ 5	13	Population Health 8.4 · Foundational
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.66	−0.38	−0.67	−0.29	▲ 1	10	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.2 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.59	−0.36	−0.64	−0.28	▼ 1	12	Health System Capability 10 · Transitional
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.45	−0.35	−0.63	−0.28	▲ 2	14	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.6 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.45	−0.22	−0.40	−0.17	0	10	Internal Security & Order 9.2 · Transitional
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.23	−0.16	−0.26	−0.11	▲ 1	10	Maritime Power 7.3 · Foundational

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−0.90	−1.05	−0.41	−0.38	−0.38	−0.94	−0.88	−0.86	−0.75
Energy supply shock	−0.15	−0.92	−0.38	−0.38	−0.38	−0.86	−1.02	−0.98	−0.88
Pandemic	−0.64	−0.32	−0.29	−0.77	−0.68	−0.73	−0.68	−0.66	−0.66
AI diffusion shock	−0.74	−0.31	−0.31	−0.83	−0.62	−0.85	−0.72	−0.40	−0.35
Global financial crisis	−0.26	−0.26	−0.26	−0.53	−0.53	−0.66	−0.88	−0.76	−0.60
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.05	−0.42	−0.27	−0.59	−0.53	−0.73	−0.88	−0.53	−0.61
Legitimacy crisis	−0.35	·	−0.78	−0.35	−0.82	−1.15	−0.94	·	·
Chokepoint closure	−0.06	−0.78	−0.72	·	−0.35	−0.75	−0.30	−0.60	−0.78
Food and water shock	−0.05	−0.46	−0.23	−0.56	−0.54	−0.58	−0.27	−0.46	−0.53
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.73	−0.20	−0.28	−0.31	·	−0.64	·	−0.65	−0.65
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.74	−0.25	−0.55	−0.25	−0.62	−0.33	−0.25	−0.25
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.45	−0.19	−0.19	·	−0.44	−0.42	−0.44	−0.43	−0.64
Mass displacement	·	−0.23	−0.19	−0.46	−0.38	−0.52	−0.22	−0.03	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.12	−0.26	−0.30	·	−0.29	−0.27	·	−0.11	−0.11

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what South Africa is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+36.2

Emerging-market breakout S20+30.6

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+27.7

Yield revolution S22+25.5

100-day pandemic defence S24+24.2

Digital state leapfrog S23+23.2

Great-power détente S18+21.8

Middle East settlement S21+21.5

Sovereign debt reset S19+17.6

Superintelligence takeoff S15−5.1

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+36.2	42.5	6.3	51	26	Energy Technologies 8.8 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+30.6	37.0	6.4	55	2	Foundational Education 10.3 · Transitional
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+27.7	43.3	15.6	51	2	Population Health 9.3 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+25.5	27.7	2.1	56	3	Technology Adoption & Diffusion 10.5 · Transitional
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+24.2	30.8	6.7	51	51	Population Health 9.3 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Gainer	+23.2	35.5	12.3	48	2	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.6 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+21.8	25.8	4.0	59	28	Export Capability & Sophistication 11.3 · Transitional
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+21.5	27.8	6.3	55	45	Internal Security & Order 10 · Transitional
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+17.6	19.5	1.9	56	4	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10.5 · Transitional
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Mixed	−5.1	18.4	23.5	36	54	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.3 · Nascent