South Korea · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years4.7rank 187 of 197 · 3 years: 4.8

Worst case−3.3%Energy supply shock · tail −3.2%

Opportunity · 10 years+37.5rank 1 of 197 · 3 years: +37.2

Best case+77Energy abundance · gainer in 9 of 10

Shock absorbed60%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.03expected index points from best practice

Breadth2 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkResource Infrastructureweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; urban share of population; share of exports going to china and the united states; industry as a share of gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in South Korea’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.53

Pandemic S14−0.51

Chokepoint closure S05−0.47

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.46

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.43

Global financial crisis S03−0.42

AI diffusion shock S13−0.42

Disaster in the core S10−0.39

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.35

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.25

Food and water shock S11−0.18

Hybrid campaign S06−0.17

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.15

Mass displacement S08−0.10

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.97	−0.53	−1.26	−0.50	10	Resource Infrastructure 10.5 · Transitional
Pandemic S14	High 0.83	−0.51	−1.30	−0.51	9	Labour & Employment 14 · Established
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.92	−0.47	−1.11	−0.45	12	Resource Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	High 0.78	−0.46	−1.11	−0.45	8	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13.5 · Established
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.79	−0.43	−1.14	−0.43	10	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 14.9 · Established
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.70	−0.42	−1.05	−0.42	10	Labour & Employment 14.2 · Established
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.82	−0.42	−1.14	−0.42	7	Labour & Employment 14.5 · Established
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.96	−0.39	−1.06	−0.39	9	Energy Infrastructure 15.1 · Advanced
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.82	−0.35	−0.84	−0.33	7	Resource Infrastructure 11.2 · Transitional
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.41	−0.25	−0.59	−0.24	6	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13.7 · Established
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.36	−0.18	−0.48	−0.18	6	Resource Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.39	−0.17	−0.43	−0.17	6	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.2 · Advanced
Legitimacy crisis S07	Low 0.33	−0.15	−0.35	−0.15	3	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 14.6 · Established
Mass displacement S08	Low 0.29	−0.10	−0.26	−0.10	4	Labour & Employment 14.9 · Established

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.12	−0.74	−0.31	−0.31	−0.31	−0.69	−0.82	−0.79	−0.70
Pandemic	−0.54	−0.27	−0.24	−0.65	−0.57	−0.61	−0.57	−0.56	−0.56
Chokepoint closure	−0.06	−0.77	−0.71	·	−0.35	−0.74	−0.30	−0.59	−0.76
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.59	−0.24	−0.24	·	−0.57	−0.55	−0.57	−0.56	−0.84
Infrastructure collapse	−0.53	−0.62	−0.25	−0.22	−0.22	−0.56	−0.52	−0.51	−0.45
Global financial crisis	−0.21	−0.21	−0.21	−0.42	−0.42	−0.53	−0.71	−0.61	−0.49
AI diffusion shock	−0.55	−0.23	−0.23	−0.61	−0.46	−0.63	−0.53	−0.29	−0.26
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.81	−0.27	−0.60	−0.27	−0.67	−0.36	−0.27	−0.27
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.66	−0.18	−0.25	−0.28	·	−0.57	·	−0.58	−0.58
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.03	−0.20	−0.13	−0.28	−0.25	−0.35	−0.42	−0.25	−0.29
Food and water shock	−0.02	−0.21	−0.10	−0.25	−0.24	−0.26	−0.12	−0.21	−0.23
Hybrid campaign	−0.13	−0.28	−0.33	·	−0.31	−0.29	·	−0.12	−0.12
Legitimacy crisis	−0.11	·	−0.23	−0.11	−0.25	−0.34	−0.28	·	·
Mass displacement	·	−0.10	−0.08	−0.20	−0.16	−0.22	−0.09	−0.01	·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what South Korea is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+77.0

Superintelligence takeoff S15+65.2

100-day pandemic defence S24+61.0

Middle East settlement S21+43.9

Great-power détente S18+43.8

Emerging-market breakout S20+20.4

Digital state leapfrog S23+19.9

Yield revolution S22+13.5

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+12.7

Sovereign debt reset S19+3.9

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+77.0	79.7	2.7	83	3	Energy Infrastructure 16.1 · Advanced
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Gainer	+65.2	72.9	7.7	82	2	Artificial Intelligence 16 · Advanced
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+61.0	61.8	0.9	80	6	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7 · Advanced
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+43.9	45.8	1.9	77	5	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5 · Established
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+43.8	51.4	7.6	78	5	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5 · Established
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+20.4	26.6	6.2	80	21	Technical & Vocational Skills 15.5 · Advanced
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Gainer	+19.9	24.5	4.6	80	6	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 15.3 · Advanced
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+13.5	16.7	3.3	81	22	Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 15.8 · Advanced
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+12.7	25.5	12.8	81	31	Population Health 16 · Advanced
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+3.9	4.7	0.8	78	91	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15 · Advanced