Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

South Asia · LKA

Sri Lanka

Baseline index 7.25Rank 77 of 197FoundationalSouth AsiaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years14.8rank 120 of 197 · 3 years: 14.5
Worst case−12.8%Energy supply shock · tail −11.1%
Opportunity · 10 years+3.3rank 73 of 197 · 3 years: +2.4
Best case+26Energy abundance · gainer in 5 of 10
Shock absorbed29%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.84expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; public debt relative to gdp; remittances relative to gdp; youth unemployment rate.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Sri Lanka’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.93
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.78
Chokepoint closure S05−0.70
AI diffusion shock S13−0.68
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.61
Pandemic S14−0.55
Global financial crisis S03−0.52
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.47
Food and water shock S11−0.42
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.34
Disaster in the core S10−0.34
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.33
Hybrid campaign S06−0.26
Mass displacement S08−0.18
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.96−0.93−1.23−0.54▼ 626Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.75−0.78−1.09−0.48▼ 420Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.82−0.70−0.97−0.42▼ 718Economic Leverage & Dependence 3.9 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.68−0.68−0.93−0.41▼ 220Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12Medium 0.57−0.61−0.82−0.36▲ 118Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.50−0.55−0.78−0.34020Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.1 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.49−0.52−0.73−0.32▲ 118Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5.5 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.68−0.47−0.70−0.30▼ 116Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.9 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.49−0.42−0.65−0.28▼ 111Resource Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.46−0.34−0.46−0.20▲ 114Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.49−0.34−0.53−0.23▼ 112Energy Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Low 0.32−0.33−0.45−0.2009Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.6 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.32−0.26−0.35−0.15▲ 110Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.5 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Low 0.32−0.18−0.28−0.12▲ 27Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.7 · Foundational

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.22−1.30−0.49−0.54−0.54−1.22−1.44−1.39−1.24
Sovereign funding crisis−0.08−0.65−0.36−0.90−0.81−1.12−1.35−0.81−0.93
Chokepoint closure−0.09−1.16−0.98·−0.52−1.11−0.45−0.89−1.15
AI diffusion shock−0.87−0.37−0.33−0.99−0.74−1.02−0.87−0.48−0.42
Infrastructure collapse−0.76−0.89−0.32−0.32−0.32−0.79−0.74−0.72−0.63
Pandemic−0.59−0.29−0.24−0.72−0.63−0.67−0.63−0.61−0.61
Global financial crisis−0.26−0.26−0.24−0.52−0.52−0.65−0.87−0.75−0.60
Legitimacy crisis−0.35·−0.69−0.35−0.81−1.12−0.92··
Food and water shock−0.05−0.48−0.22−0.59−0.56−0.60−0.28−0.48−0.55
Single-supplier cut-off−0.65−0.18−0.23−0.28·−0.56·−0.57−0.57
Disaster in the core−0.02−0.71−0.21−0.52−0.24−0.59−0.31−0.24−0.24
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.42−0.18−0.16·−0.41−0.40−0.41−0.40−0.60
Hybrid campaign−0.19−0.42−0.45·−0.46−0.43·−0.17−0.17
Mass displacement·−0.18−0.14−0.38−0.31−0.42−0.18−0.02·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Sri Lanka is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+25.9
Middle East settlement S21+24.9
Emerging-market breakout S20+20.6
Sovereign debt reset S19+14.4
Yield revolution S22+11.6
100-day pandemic defence S24+8.5
Digital state leapfrog S23+1.7
Great-power détente S18−6.4
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−11.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15−27.3
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+25.926.20.32642Energy Technologies 2.8 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+24.926.41.54039Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7.3 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Gainer+20.628.37.84120Investment Attraction & Projection 7 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Gainer+14.417.22.94314Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗Gainer+11.614.73.03226Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+8.513.95.43194Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed+1.718.416.72965Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−6.411.117.538148Investment Attraction & Projection 7 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−11.417.028.333134Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−27.310.437.721149Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception