Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years28.1rank 64 of 197 · 3 years: 28.6
Worst case−23.3%Global financial crisis · tail −22.4%
Opportunity · 10 years−11.6rank 166 of 197 · 3 years: −10.5
Best case+3Sovereign debt reset · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed18%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.03expected index points from best practice
Breadth10 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Legitimacy crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: industry as a share of gdp; consumer price inflation; youth unemployment rate; adult obesity rate; internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; public debt relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Suriname’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Global financial crisis S03−0.94
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.90
Pandemic S14−0.88
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.71
AI diffusion shock S13−0.61
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.59
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.55
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.52
Disaster in the core S10−0.43
Energy supply shock S09−0.40
Chokepoint closure S05−0.33
Mass displacement S08−0.31
Food and water shock S11−0.24
Hybrid campaign S06−0.22
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.80 | −0.94 | −1.14 | −0.50 | ▼ 8 | 20 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.82 | −0.90 | −1.03 | −0.47 | ▼ 7 | 23 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.75 | −0.88 | −1.04 | −0.47 | ▼ 7 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.61 | −0.71 | −0.87 | −0.38 | ▲ 4 | 15 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.5 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.61 | −0.61 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.82 | −0.59 | −0.76 | −0.35 | ▼ 3 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.1 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.51 | −0.55 | −0.64 | −0.29 | 0 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.75 | −0.52 | −0.62 | −0.28 | ▼ 3 | 16 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.53 | −0.43 | −0.58 | −0.25 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Medium 0.38 | −0.40 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 7 | 11 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Low 0.34 | −0.33 | −0.40 | −0.18 | ▲ 8 | 12 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0.7 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.47 | −0.31 | −0.41 | −0.18 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Internal Security & Order 5.3 · Nascent |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.23 | −0.24 | −0.30 | −0.13 | ▲ 8 | 9 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.5 · Nascent |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.24 | −0.22 | −0.25 | −0.11 | ▼ 1 | 7 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis | −0.19 | −0.49 | −0.43 | −0.98 | −0.98 | −1.23 | −1.64 | −1.40 | −1.12 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.23 | −1.47 | −0.50 | −0.53 | −0.53 | −1.32 | −1.23 | −1.21 | −1.05 |
| Pandemic | −0.23 | −0.52 | −0.41 | −1.25 | −1.09 | −1.17 | −1.09 | −1.07 | −1.07 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.06 | −0.60 | −0.33 | −0.83 | −0.74 | −1.02 | −1.24 | −0.74 | −0.85 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.23 | −0.38 | −0.33 | −1.00 | −0.75 | −1.03 | −0.88 | −0.48 | −0.43 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.19 | · | −0.80 | −0.46 | −1.08 | −1.51 | −1.24 | · | · |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.23 | −0.33 | −0.29 | · | −0.76 | −0.73 | −0.76 | −0.74 | −1.12 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.23 | −0.33 | −0.40 | −0.52 | · | −1.05 | · | −1.06 | −1.06 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.89 | −0.27 | −0.66 | −0.30 | −0.74 | −0.40 | −0.30 | −0.30 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.06 | −0.56 | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.52 | −0.62 | −0.60 | −0.53 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −0.55 | −0.45 | · | −0.25 | −0.53 | −0.21 | −0.42 | −0.54 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.32 | −0.24 | −0.64 | −0.53 | −0.72 | −0.31 | −0.04 | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.03 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.33 | −0.31 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.08 | −0.38 | −0.39 | · | −0.42 | −0.39 | · | −0.16 | −0.16 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Suriname is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Sovereign debt reset S19+2.5
100-day pandemic defence S24+1.9
Energy abundance S16−7.8
Digital state leapfrog S23−8.5
Emerging-market breakout S20−8.9
Middle East settlement S21−8.9
Great-power détente S18−13.2
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−16.5
Yield revolution S22−18.7
Superintelligence takeoff S15−29.1
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.5 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 30 | 109 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 5.3 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +1.9 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 14 | 128 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | −7.8 | 3.9 | 11.7 | 13 | 149 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −8.5 | 7.9 | 16.4 | 15 | 136 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | −8.9 | 11.6 | 20.6 | 23 | 188 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.7 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | −8.9 | 4.0 | 12.8 | 23 | 167 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −13.2 | 8.4 | 21.6 | 19 | 171 | Export Capability & Sophistication 3.3 · Nascent |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −16.5 | 10.7 | 27.1 | 16 | 157 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −18.7 | 4.3 | 23.0 | 14 | 180 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −29.1 | 5.1 | 34.2 | 10 | 157 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |