Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Indo-Pacific · THA

Thailand

Baseline index 10.70Rank 40 of 197TransitionalIndo-PacificAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years9.1rank 157 of 197 · 3 years: 9.5
Worst case−6.5%Pandemic · tail −6.3%
Opportunity · 10 years+13.4rank 34 of 197 · 3 years: +14.1
Best case+34100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 5 of 10
Shock absorbed43%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.47expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; industry as a share of gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Thailand’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.69
AI diffusion shock S13−0.68
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.64
Global financial crisis S03−0.62
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.60
Energy supply shock S09−0.58
Chokepoint closure S05−0.55
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.50
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.36
Hybrid campaign S06−0.29
Disaster in the core S10−0.28
Mass displacement S08−0.23
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.22
Food and water shock S11−0.21
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Pandemic S14High 0.78−0.69−1.20−0.53▲ 222Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.7 · Foundational
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.81−0.68−1.11−0.48▼ 123Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.80−0.64−1.12−0.49▼ 219Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.6 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03High 0.80−0.62−1.19−0.52▼ 118Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7.7 · Foundational
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.67−0.60−0.96−0.42▲ 318Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.3 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09High 0.75−0.58−0.97−0.42▲ 316Energy Technologies 5.3 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.80−0.55−0.95−0.42▲ 117Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 8.3 · Foundational
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.89−0.50−0.90−0.39▼ 212Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.45−0.36−0.65−0.28▲ 111Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.3 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.42−0.29−0.47−0.21▲ 111Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.2 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.48−0.28−0.52−0.23▲ 212Energy Infrastructure 9.9 · Transitional
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.50−0.23−0.44−0.19010Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.2 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07Low 0.34−0.22−0.34−0.15▲ 27Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.4 · Foundational
Food and water shock S11Low 0.30−0.21−0.40−0.17▲ 19Internal Security & Order 10.2 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Pandemic−0.74−0.37−0.30−0.89−0.78−0.84−0.78−0.77−0.77
AI diffusion shock−0.89−0.37−0.34−0.99−0.75−1.02−0.87−0.48−0.43
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.81−0.34−0.30·−0.79−0.76−0.79−0.77−1.16
Global financial crisis−0.31−0.31−0.28−0.63−0.63−0.78−1.04−0.89−0.72
Infrastructure collapse−0.75−0.88−0.31−0.31−0.31−0.78−0.73−0.71−0.63
Energy supply shock−0.13−0.81−0.30−0.34−0.34−0.76−0.90−0.86−0.77
Chokepoint closure−0.07−0.90−0.76·−0.40−0.86−0.35−0.69−0.89
Single-supplier cut-off−0.96−0.26−0.33−0.41·−0.83·−0.84−0.84
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.30−0.17−0.41−0.37−0.51−0.62−0.37−0.42
Hybrid campaign−0.21−0.47−0.50·−0.52−0.49·−0.19−0.19
Disaster in the core−0.02−0.58−0.17−0.43−0.19−0.48−0.26−0.19−0.19
Mass displacement·−0.24−0.18−0.49−0.40−0.55−0.23−0.03·
Legitimacy crisis−0.16·−0.32−0.16−0.37−0.52−0.43··
Food and water shock−0.02−0.24−0.11−0.29−0.28−0.30−0.14−0.24−0.27

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Thailand is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+34.1
Energy abundance S16+31.4
Middle East settlement S21+29.2
Great-power détente S18+19.3
Emerging-market breakout S20+13.3
Digital state leapfrog S23+9.6
Superintelligence takeoff S15+8.1
Sovereign debt reset S19+6.5
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−2.1
Yield revolution S22−4.3
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+34.136.22.15136Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 · Transitional
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+31.431.80.44533Energy Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+29.230.21.05628Energy Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional
Great-power détente S18 ↗Gainer+19.339.220.06033Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 11.3 · Transitional
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Gainer+13.326.513.25852Energy Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed+9.619.39.74429Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Mixed+8.128.620.53831Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+6.58.31.85561Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed−2.123.325.55295Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−4.315.119.452123Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 · Transitional