Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Indo-Pacific · TLS

Timor-Leste

Baseline index 2.98Rank 171 of 197InceptionIndo-PacificAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years33.7rank 43 of 197 · 3 years: 33.9
Worst case−25.1%Geoeconomic confrontation · tail −24.6%
Opportunity · 10 years−16.0rank 188 of 197 · 3 years: −14.1
Best case+6Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed14%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.97expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Geoeconomic confrontation, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; remittances relative to gdp; share of population aged under 15; share of exports going to china and the united states; low real gdp per head; staple foods among the top five imports.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Timor-Leste’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.75
Disaster in the core S10−0.74
Food and water shock S11−0.71
AI diffusion shock S13−0.68
Pandemic S14−0.66
Global financial crisis S03−0.64
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.49
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.48
Chokepoint closure S05−0.44
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.41
Energy supply shock S09−0.38
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.34
Hybrid campaign S06−0.26
Mass displacement S08−0.18
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.72−0.75−0.87−0.39▼ 616Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.86−0.74−0.92−0.41▼ 523Energy Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception
Food and water shock S11High 0.65−0.71−0.84−0.37▼ 316Resource Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.65−0.68−0.76−0.34▼ 217Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.55−0.66−0.75−0.33▲ 217Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.53−0.64−0.75−0.33▲ 319Economic Output & Productivity 0.7 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12Medium 0.43−0.49−0.54−0.24▲ 412Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.68−0.48−0.54−0.24▼ 111Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Medium 0.44−0.44−0.50−0.22▲ 411Maritime Power 0.6 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Low 0.35−0.41−0.49−0.22▲ 712Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09Low 0.35−0.38−0.44−0.19▲ 1210Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.47−0.34−0.44−0.19▲ 57Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.9 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.29−0.26−0.29−0.1308Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Low 0.26−0.18−0.22−0.10▲ 63Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.13−0.46−0.32·−1.08−1.04−1.08−1.06−1.56
Disaster in the core−0.04−1.54−0.37−1.17−0.53−1.31−0.70−0.53−0.53
Food and water shock−0.04−0.83−0.29−1.01−0.96−1.03−0.48−0.83−0.94
AI diffusion shock−0.13−0.43−0.30−1.15−0.86−1.18−1.00−0.55−0.49
Pandemic−0.13−0.39−0.25−0.95−0.83−0.89−0.83−0.81−0.81
Global financial crisis−0.10−0.34−0.24−0.67−0.67−0.84−1.12−0.96−0.77
Infrastructure collapse−0.13−0.81−0.23−0.29−0.29−0.72−0.67−0.66−0.58
Single-supplier cut-off−0.13−0.31−0.31−0.50·−1.01·−1.02−1.02
Chokepoint closure−0.04−0.75−0.52·−0.34−0.72−0.29−0.58−0.74
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.34−0.15−0.48−0.43−0.59−0.72−0.43−0.49
Energy supply shock−0.04−0.55−0.16−0.23−0.23−0.52−0.61−0.59−0.53
Legitimacy crisis−0.08·−0.44−0.27−0.64−0.89−0.73··
Hybrid campaign−0.06−0.47−0.39·−0.52−0.48·−0.19−0.19
Mass displacement·−0.19−0.11−0.38−0.31−0.43−0.18−0.02·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Timor-Leste is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+6.1
100-day pandemic defence S24+0.4
Sovereign debt reset S19+0.2
Digital state leapfrog S23−6.1
Yield revolution S22−10.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−17.1
Great-power détente S18−23.2
Superintelligence takeoff S15−30.0
Middle East settlement S21−35.4
Energy abundance S16−70.9
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+6.112.36.216107Industrial & Sectoral Base 2.5 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+0.44.33.99146Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+0.24.03.823141Financial Regulation & Integrity 3.8 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−6.18.014.011116Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−10.86.016.88150Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−17.15.722.810160Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Loser−23.27.430.612187Export Capability & Sophistication 1.7 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−30.03.933.97162Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Loser−35.45.340.718186Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−70.92.273.18190Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception